Trump: Choosing Walsh can give the U.S. economy a 15% growth boost.

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Trump directly linked his choice for Federal Reserve chair to “15% economic growth,” revealing a strong preference for more accommodative monetary policy, while Walsh’s policy performance after taking office will be subject to extremely high political and market expectations.

According to Bloomberg, Trump said in an interview with Fox Business that if his nominee Walsh is confirmed and “does the job he is capable of doing,” the US economy “can grow 15%, I think even more.” Relevant interview clips aired Monday, and the full interview is expected to be broadcast Tuesday.

For markets, the 15% growth target itself is extremely aggressive; its more realistic implication is that Trump wants Walsh to accelerate the economy ahead of the midterm elections by lowering interest rates, while significantly reducing concerns about rising inflation.

However, uncertainties remain over whether Walsh can take office quickly. Senator Thom Tillis has stated that he will block any Fed personnel confirmations while the Trump administration continues its investigation into Powell.

“15% growth” target: far exceeds current mainstream expectations

In the interview, Trump said Walsh was his “second choice” in his previous selection of Fed chair, and emphasized that Walsh “will be great, is a high-quality person.” But the 15% growth target he proposed is far higher than the current mainstream expectations.

Bloomberg pointed out that Trump did not clearly specify whether he meant year-on-year growth or another metric. Based on current forecasts, the US economy is expected to grow 2.4% this year, and the average annual growth over the past fifty years has been about 2.8%.

Since the 1950s, US GDP has only seen growth above 15% in a few periods, including the rebound in the third quarter of 2020 after pandemic lockdowns were lifted.

In this comparison, the 15% is more like a policy signal rather than an operable benchmark, indicating that if Walsh is appointed, his policy performance will be under extremely high political and market expectations.

Rate cuts are a prerequisite: tolerance for inflation is raised

Trump’s remarks also clearly indicated his requirement for interest rate direction. Bloomberg reported that during his search for a new chair, Trump stated he hoped the candidate would be able to lower interest rates, and later added that if Walsh advocated raising rates, he “would not pick” Walsh.

This position is at odds with conventional macro constraints. Bloomberg noted that at a near 15% growth rate, inflation normally rises sharply, while inflation remains “persistently high,” but Trump’s comments show he is unconcerned about inflation.

In terms of policy expectations, the median forecasts by Fed officials in December predicted only one rate cut in 2026; meanwhile, investors still anticipate two rate cuts this year.

Bloomberg noted that Trump’s public push for lower rates, breaking with decades of precedent, raises questions about the Fed’s independence. Against this backdrop, even if Walsh is ultimately confirmed, his policy room will be under a strong political spotlight.

Uncertainty in confirmation process: Thom Tillis’s obstruction threat

Even though Trump has released a clear preference, Walsh’s arrival time may still be delayed. Bloomberg said that Thom Tillis, a soon-to-retire Republican senator from North Carolina, has pledged to block any Fed personnel confirmations as long as the Trump administration continues its investigation into Powell.

For markets, tracking ahead is not only about “who will helm the Fed,” but also whether the confirmation process will be stalled, and whether friction between the White House and the Fed will further impact rate expectations and policy credibility.

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