Trump considers resuming limited military strikes against Iran, "doesn't care whether Iran returns to the negotiating table."

Negotiations break down, blockade escalates, Middle East tensions tighten again. On April 13, according to a Xinhua News Agency report quoting the Wall Street Journal, following failed negotiations between the United States and Iran, U.S. President Trump is considering resuming limited military strikes against Iran while simultaneously blockading the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Central Command announced that beginning at 10 a.m. Eastern time on the 13th, all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports will be blockaded. The direct trigger for the breakdown in negotiations was Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program. The Islamabad talks, led by U.S. Vice President Vance, immediately ended in failure. Trump used tough language in an interview with Fox News that day: “I don’t want to do this, but it’s their water, their desalination plants, their power plants—these are all easy targets.” According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump stated that he does not care whether Iran returns to the negotiating table. He told the media, “I don’t care if they come back. If they don’t come back, it doesn’t matter to me.” Nevertheless, Trump’s aides say he remains open to a diplomatic solution. Reza Amiri Moghadam, a senior member of Iran’s negotiating team, also wrote on social media: “The Islamabad talks laid the foundation for the diplomatic process; if trust and willingness are strengthened, a sustainable framework serving all parties’ interests can be created.” Options on the table, full-scale bombing less likely Media reports say Trump is currently considering options including: resuming limited military strikes, maintaining the blockade of the strait, and pressuring allies to take on long-term escort missions. The possibility of fully resuming bombing is relatively low. According to informed officials, there are two reasons: First, it could further destabilize the region; second, Trump himself is resistant to prolonged military conflict. White House spokesperson Olivia Wales declared: “The president has ordered the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, ending Iran’s ‘blackmail’ tactics, and wisely keeps all additional options open. Anyone claiming to know Trump’s next move is merely speculating.” Red lines drawn, nuclear issue is central Trump's side clearly listed red lines in negotiations, including: Iran must fully open the Strait of Hormuz with free passage; halt all uranium enrichment activities and dismantle related facilities; hand over highly enriched uranium; accept a broader security framework involving regional allies; and stop funding proxy forces such as Hezbollah and Yemeni Houthi militants. Trump stated that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is one of the main reasons for waging this war. According to Xinhua News Agency quoting The New York Times, two informed Iranian officials revealed that there are three major sticking points in U.S.-Iran negotiations: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the enriched uranium issue, and unfreezing Iran’s overseas assets. Blockade strategy: optimal, but risks coexist Regarding the strategy of blockading the strait, some officials and analysts regard it as the “least bad” option at present. The logic is: about half of Iran’s government income comes from oil and natural gas, and blockading the strait will impact Iran’s economy. Former Pentagon official and current Atlantic Council member Matthew Kroenig said: “We’ve seen this blockade strategy basically work in Venezuela, and Trump has a chance to replicate it here. It’s an effective way to pressure the regime and force it into a dilemma.” However, the blockade also carries major risks. Even after decades of sanctions and weeks of intensive bombing, Iran has not succumbed to economic pressure. U.S. officials warn that naval vessels carrying out blockade missions in the narrow strait near Iran’s coast could face sudden missile and drone attacks, leaving very limited reaction time. Economic costs continue to accumulate, political pressure rises in tandem The Strait of Hormuz handles about 20% of the world's oil supply. Continued tension in the region has already pressured global energy markets, with oil prices running high. Trump’s economic advisor Steve Moore said bluntly, “My advice to White House officials is to ensure the strait’s security at all costs, immediately; this is the urgent priority for the economy, the nation, and global security. We have the capacity to guarantee international trade flow, and we must use it. Otherwise, the entire world economy could slide into a global recession.” Trump himself also admitted that gasoline prices may remain high—posing a potential drag on the Republican Party’s performance in the midterm elections. Former National Security Council senior official Fred Fleitz takes a relatively optimistic view. He believes that Iran sending a large delegation to Islamabad itself indicates that a diplomatic solution is still possible. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market has risks; investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and has not considered individual users’ special investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.