Trump determined to "indefinitely" blockade Iran, nuclear talks stall, oil prices under pressure

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Facing the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations, Trump has chosen a strategy of "delay." This decision marks a new phase of the conflict and makes the already stalled prospects for nuclear talks even more uncertain.

Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports on the 28th, reported that President Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for a long-term blockade of Iran.

According to media reports, Trump, in several meetings including a White House Situation Room meeting on Monday, explicitly chose to continue the blockade of Iranian ports to squeeze its economy and oil exports, in order to force Tehran to make concessions on the nuclear issue. On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump wrote that the blockade is pushing Iran to the "brink of collapse."

This tough stance continues to put pressure on the global energy market. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to its lowest level since the current round of conflict began, oil prices are facing upward pressure, and US domestic gasoline prices have risen accordingly, which has already dragged down Trump's poll support rate and cast a shadow over the Republican prospects in the midterm elections.

All Three Options Come With Costs, Trump Chooses to "Drag Things Out"

Trump currently faces three choices: resume bombing, accept Iran's proposal to extricate himself, or maintain the blockade. Upon assessment, he believes that the risks of the first two outweigh continuing the blockade.

Restarting military strikes could further weaken Iran, but Tehran would likely retaliate by damaging energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, thereby increasing the costs of war. Unilaterally ending the blockade would mean accepting the proposal put forth by Iran last weekend—this plan would allow Tehran to set the terms for negotiations itself, which the White House believes would weaken the US bargaining position on the nuclear issue.

Maintaining the blockade may not provide a quick victory, but a senior US official said, the blockade has already significantly damaged Iran's economy—Iran is facing storage pressure from large quantities of unsold oil, and this has prompted Tehran to actively send new contact signals to Washington.

Suzanne Maloney, Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Program of the Brookings Institution and an Iran expert, pointed out: "Iran is weighing whether its ability to withstand and circumvent the blockade can exceed America's willingness to prevent a broader energy crisis or even a global recession."

Substantive Stalemate in Nuclear Negotiations, Both Sides Believe Time Is on Their Side

Although the White House previously expected US-Iran talks to resume in Pakistan last weekend, negotiations are currently stalled.

On Monday, Iran informed mediators that it would take several days to consult Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei before submitting a revised proposal. However, regional mediators are skeptical whether Iran's updated plan will bring a breakthrough. Iranian officials insist that Washington abandon its so-called "maximum pressure" demands while Iran maintains the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump's current core demand, which he is unwilling to abandon, is: Iran must at least pledge to suspend nuclear enrichment activities for 20 years and accept relevant restrictions thereafter. On Monday, he determined that Iran’s proposal of "reopening the Strait of Hormuz in three steps, leaving the nuclear issue to the final stage" shows Tehran is not negotiating in good faith.

Eric Brewer, former senior Iran analyst in the US intelligence community, said: "I’m not surprised he didn’t accept the agreement, because it doesn’t touch the nuclear issue at all. When you're still waiting to see whether the blockade can inflict severe economic damage on Iran, why accept Iran’s proposal?"

Nico Lange, Director of the German Institute for Risk Analysis and International Security and former Chief of Staff at the German Defense Ministry, pointed out: "Both sides seem to think they're right and that time is on their side."

Internal Divisions and Iranian Hardliners Make Diplomacy More Complex

Trump is currently facing mutually contradictory advice from within. South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and other allies are publicly urging the White House to keep up the pressure on Tehran. Meanwhile, certain business figures close to the president worry that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or escalation of conflict will only further harm the economy, becoming a fatal political liability on the eve of the midterms.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted another layer of complexity in a media interview on Monday—the power struggle within Iran is disrupting any diplomatic effort. "Rubio said, "Our negotiators are not just negotiating with the Iranians—the Iranians then have to go and negotiate with another group of Iranians to figure out what they can agree to, can offer, are willing to do, and even who they're willing to meet."

Meanwhile, US officials have also realized that as the blockade continues to tighten, Iran may try to force Washington to choose between escalating the conflict and making concessions—including resuming attacks on regional energy facilities or targeting US Navy assets enforcing the blockade. According to the Wall Street Journal, some US officials have begun to believe that after these eight weeks of conflict, ultimately neither a nuclear deal nor a resumption of war may occur.

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