Trump: If US-Iran negotiations fail, another aircraft carrier strike group may be sent to the Middle East; Iran will not have nuclear weapons or missiles.

Trump: If US-Iran negotiations fail, another aircraft carrier strike group may be sent to the Middle East; Iran will not have nuclear weapons or missiles.

According to CCTV News, U.S. President Trump stated that he is considering, if negotiations with Iran fail to achieve results, deploying another U.S. aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East to prepare for possible military operations.

Previously, on January 26, an unnamed U.S. official stated that the U.S. Navy's "Abraham Lincoln" aircraft carrier strike group has entered the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility in the Western Indian Ocean. If the White House orders a strike on Iran, theoretically, the carrier strike group could launch military actions within "one or two days."

According to CCTV News, On the 10th local time, U.S. President Trump stated, "Iran will not possess nuclear weapons or missiles."

It is reported that Trump said if the U.S. and Iran cannot reach an agreement soon, he is prepared to take military action as he did during the U.S.-Iran conflict last June. Trump said Iran "really wants to reach an agreement," but if negotiations fail, the U.S. will take "very tough action."

Last week, the U.S. and Iran resumed negotiations in Oman, marking the first dialogue since the conflict last June. Trump said this time Iran took a softer attitude. He stated that the U.S. military deployment in the Gulf region provides an important bargaining chip to pressure Iran and confirmed he is considering sending another carrier and carrier strike group to the Middle East.

Trump expects that the meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on the 11th will mainly discuss the Iran issue. He said the meeting schedule adjustment is mainly due to scheduling and not other reasons. Trump said he does not think Netanyahu feels pressured by the U.S.-Iran negotiations because Netanyahu also wants a "good agreement."

Trump predicts that the second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations will be held next week. He emphasized that any agreement with Iran must not only include nuclear issues but must also address Iran's ballistic missile issue. He added, "We can reach a very good agreement with Iran."

Iranian Official: If U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations Succeed, Dialogue May Expand to Other Fields

According to CCTV News, on the evening of the 10th local time, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and advisor to the Supreme Leader, Larijani, said in an interview that the previous stage of the U.S.-Iran negotiation process has gradually made progress. He pointed out that as long as the negotiations are realistically feasible, Iran is willing to continue to participate. Larijani said Iran's position in the first round of negotiations was positive and stated that the next stage could bring opportunities for strategic easing or at least achieve political realignment, which depends on the final outcome of the dialogue.

When asked whether these negotiations indicate a substantive change in how Iran and the U.S. handle their differences or just remain as "crisis management," Larijani said the U.S. put forward many proposals and that if nuclear negotiations succeed, dialogue could expand to other fields in the future, but at present, it cannot be said whether other issues can be discussed.

When discussing the core obstacles to establishing a sustainable trust mechanism between Iran and the U.S., Larijani stated that U.S. accusations about Iran seeking nuclear weapons are the main obstacle. He stressed that Iran has made it clear it does not seek nuclear weapons. He also pointed out that the U.S. can similarly take actions to resolve some pending issues.

According to CCTV News, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and advisor to the Supreme Leader, Larijani, arrived in Muscat, Oman, on the 10th for a visit and held an almost three-hour meeting with Sultan Haitham of Oman. Afterwards, Larijani continued talks with Oman's Foreign Minister Badr.

Regarding arrangements for the next round of Iran-U.S. negotiations, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated on the 10th that negotiations will continue in their current form, provided that the time and location of the next round are agreed upon.

Netanyahu to Provide Trump with New Intelligence on Iran's Military Capabilities

According to CCTV News, on the evening of the 10th local time, Israeli sources said that during his visit to the U.S., Prime Minister Netanyahu will provide U.S. President Trump with new intelligence on Iran's military capabilities, especially intelligence concerning Iran's restored ballistic missile capability.

Israel stated that if there is no intervention against Iran, Iran will possess up to 2,000 ballistic missiles in a few weeks or months.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said on the 10th that Iran's peaceful nuclear program being framed as the source of a "manufactured crisis" originates from Israel. He said Israel has repeatedly claimed for nearly 40 years that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, in an attempt to create "imaginary fear" in the international community. He emphasized that the so-called "Iranian nuclear bomb" does not exist.

On February 10th local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu left for the U.S., preparing to meet U.S. President Trump on February 11th local time. Before departing, Netanyahu said he would present Israel's so-called "principled positions" on the Iran issue to the U.S. and emphasized that these principles "concern not only Israel, but all nations wishing to achieve peace and security."

On the 8th local time, Israeli sources said Netanyahu is expected to demand in the meeting that the U.S. promote the transfer of Iran's enriched uranium out of the country and restrict its ballistic missile capability.

Expert Commentary

Iran and Israel vie for dominance in future developments:

Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that Larijani's visit to Oman aims first and foremost to strengthen Oman's role as an intermediary and to use Oman's diplomatic channels to further probe the U.S. position based on the previous round of negotiations, stressing Iran's "red line" in negotiations, namely the inalienable right to uranium enrichment.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's concurrent visit to the U.S. is to exert pressure, demanding a tougher stance during negotiations. The simultaneous visits reflect that geopolitical competition remains intense. Iran seeks to stabilize the situation through diplomatic moves and isolate Israel, while Israel hopes to tie U.S. policy to ensure its own security demands.

Escalating competition, U.S.-Iran talks may face greater difficulty:

Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that these two diplomatic activities increase uncertainty in negotiations and may make it more difficult for the next round of U.S.-Iran talks to achieve breakthroughs.

Larijani's visit helps maintain channels for dialogue, but Iran’s position may become tougher, such as insisting on the right to uranium enrichment and refusing to discuss missile issues. Netanyahu’s U.S. visit may raise American demands, making the U.S. more inclined to adopt Israeli positions in negotiations. This will touch Iran’s "red line," increasing the risk of talks breaking down. Both sides are now negotiating and continually testing each other's bottom line.

If this competition continues, either there is a temporary compromise, such as freezing uranium enrichment activities and handing over highly enriched uranium in exchange for easing sanctions, or Israel unilaterally takes military action to disrupt negotiations, pushing the region toward conflict.

Structural contradictions and lack of mutual trust between Iran and the U.S. difficult to improve:

Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, believes that at present, both Iran and the U.S. still prioritize negotiations, but the focus of the competition is the degree of compromise. The U.S. wants Iran to make sweeping concessions, while Iran only wants to show flexibility technically. This fundamental lack of mutual trust makes negotiations precarious.

 

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