Trump: India will no longer buy Russian oil, Russia: No, India never said that.

After U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with India, Washington and Moscow showed clear differences in their interpretations of the agreement's content. Trump claimed that New Delhi had agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, but the Kremlin stated it had not received any relevant statements from India.

According to CCTV News, on February 2, U.S. President Trump posted on the social media platform "Truth Social" that he reached an agreement with Indian Prime Minister Modi during a phone call: India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and to instead buy more oil from the U.S. and possibly from Venezuela. In exchange, the U.S. would lower its main tariff on India from 25% to 18%, and cancel the additional 25% punitive tariff imposed last summer due to India's purchase of Russian oil.

In response, according to CCTV International Time, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that Russia had not received any information indicating India would stop purchasing Russian oil. Russian Deputy Prime Minister and former Oil Minister Alexander Novak played down potential losses, saying "We have only seen public statements, and we will observe how the situation develops."

Analysts widely question whether India will fully stop purchasing Russian oil, believing such a move would have a significant economic impact.

India Remains Silent

On Monday, Modi confirmed the agreement with the U.S. on social platform X, stating "Glad that products made in India will now enjoy an 18% reduction in tariffs," but did not mention the issue of Russian oil. New Delhi has not commented on whether it will stop buying Russian oil.

Kremlin spokesperson Peskov said in an interview with RIA Novosti: "We respect U.S.-India bilateral relations, but we also value the development of advanced strategic partnerships between Russia and India. This is most important to us, and we plan to further develop bilateral relations with New Delhi."

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak remained relaxed about potentially losing Indian customers, stating: "Our energy resources are in demand, and we see this frequently. Supply will always meet demand, as balance will be maintained."

Analysts Remain Skeptical

Evan A. Feigenbaum, Vice President for Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on Tuesday: "I find it hard to believe the Indian government would make any explicit commitment regarding Russian oil. India will not simply abandon these ties under U.S. pressure."

Feigenbaum noted that keeping the symbolic option of buying Russian oil reflects India's diplomatic autonomy and its ability to resist U.S. coercion, both important factors in domestic Indian politics. He said that while there are signs that New Delhi is gradually reducing imports of Russian crude, openly criticizing Russia remains "an impossible option" for Modi.

Economic Impact Becomes Key Consideration

Moody's Ratings Agency said Tuesday that considering the potential economic impact of fully stopping purchases of Russian oil, India is unlikely to turn its back completely. "Although India has reduced its purchases of Russian crude oil in recent months, it's unlikely to immediately stop all purchases, as this may disrupt India's economic growth."

Moody's pointed out that fully switching to non-Russian oil could tighten supply in other regions, drive up prices, and lead to higher inflation, as India is one of the world’s largest oil importers. This could increase manufacturing costs and drive up consumer prices.

Analysts believe that due to the need for cheap oil, maintaining diplomatic autonomy, and keeping close geopolitical and defense ties with Russia, it is unlikely India will completely end these purchases.

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