Trump insists "Iran gave in," Iran says "He's lying," investors: "He's negotiating with the market, completely ignoring Iran."

The two-week deadline for the US-Iran ceasefire agreement is about to expire, and the signaling war over the progress of negotiations is plunging into unprecedented chaos.

On April 17, Trump repeatedly posted on social media, claiming the situation in the Strait of Hormuz "has been resolved" and asserting he had obtained most of what he wanted from Iran, including a full reopening of the strait, Iran’s commitment to giving up high-enriched uranium reserves, and ceasing support for regional proxy forces.

However, WallstreetCN mentioned, Iran immediately refuted these claims. Iranian conservative lawmaker and negotiation team member Mahmoud Nabavian stated that Iran will continue to charge passage fees for past merchant ships and that the strait has not been "fully reopened."

Some netizens commented under the White House social media post, saying, "I like the way Trump negotiates with the markets now, completely ignoring Iran..."

According to reports, a senior Gulf official familiar with the negotiations said that Trump is eager to end the military conflict with Iran, "He will accept more compromises because he very much wants all this to be over. He takes the negotiations seriously, but the Iranian side still refuses to let him exit gracefully on key issues."

Despite contradictory and confusing news reports, the market remains optimistic. US stocks and bonds strengthened together on Friday, and oil prices plunged by 11%.

(US stocks and bonds both rose on Friday, US oil fell)

As oil prices fell, expectations for a Fed rate cut this year increased, and the dollar dropped to its lowest in nearly seven weeks.

(The dollar index once dropped more than 0.6%)

Trump's Negotiation Strategy: Using "Victory Announcements" to Create Pressure

According to The Paper, Trump himself is eager to end the military action against Iran and is willing to make more compromises in the negotiation framework.

After the announcement of a temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, Trump repeatedly released signals that he was pushing for conflict de-escalation through negotiations and suggested welcoming Israeli and Lebanese leaders to the White House to discuss relevant political solutions.

Trump previously described the Israeli military response to Hezbollah in Lebanon as a "separate conflict," insisting it was not part of the overall negotiations with Iran.

In the recent push for a ceasefire, he actually included this factor in the overall negotiation structure, thereby reducing, to some extent, conditions that might impede Iran’s concessions.

However, the report, citing people familiar with the matter, revealed that Trump’s repeated premature declarations of breakthroughs or claims that Iran was about to compromise is part of his negotiation strategy—intended to accelerate his counterpart’s actions through public opinion pressure and send Iran the signal: "Accept it or be left out."

However, the cost of this strategy is accumulating. Trump's "flash announcement" tactic has sowed confusion and doubt among close allies and some negotiation participants, who find it hard to judge whether Iran has truly made concessions or if Trump is once again unilaterally "declaring victory."

A European diplomat commented:

This is a game of chicken in the economic realm, and European and Asian countries are caught in the middle, finding it difficult to take sides.

Markets and Allies: Optimistic but Cautious

French President Macron stated, "The latest progress is encouraging, but caution must be maintained," while UK Prime Minister Starmer emphasized any plan must be "feasible and durable."

Multinational leaders are holding a video conference discussing how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and even after Trump announced a "breakthrough" via posts, the meeting continued as scheduled and planning continued. This detail reflects deep skepticism among allies toward Trump's habitual "reporting victory."

According to CCTV International News, Trump said NATO had called asking if assistance was needed, but he replied "no need for help," unless they "just want to haul away oil." Trump also criticized NATO for being "useless" at critical moments and called NATO a "paper tiger" again.

For global investors, the core risk in this signaling war is: as the ceasefire deadline approaches, if no substantive progress is made in the talks, tension in the Strait of Hormuz may quickly rebound, directly impacting the global energy supply chain and oil prices.

Additionally, the US strategy of maritime blockade itself carries "backlash" risks. Against a backdrop of heightened tension in the global energy market, blockading actions may further push up oil prices and exacerbate domestic political pressure in the US.

Trump downplayed this. When facing journalists on the 17th, he said:

If there are disagreements, we will solve them, but I don't think there are major disagreements.

He also said that once the agreement is signed, US military blockades on Iranian ports would immediately be lifted. "We’ll see, but the result should be good."

Core Disagreements Unresolved, Negotiation Details Full of Uncertainty

Despite Trump’s optimistic tone about negotiation progress, several key issues remain unresolved.

Apart from arrangements for Hormuz Strait passage, the disposal of Iran’s high-enriched uranium inventory and Iran’s future uranium enrichment rights remain the hardest nuts to crack between the US and Iran.

WallstreetCN mentioned that, according to Xinhua citing US media reports from Friday the 17th, the US had proposed to Iran that if the latter gave up its uranium reserves, the US would allow Iran to obtain about $20 billion in overseas frozen assets.

But Trump later denied the existence of such a proposal in media interviews, making negotiation details even more mysterious.

The fate of the Strait of Hormuz issue also affects the entire Persian Gulf. Iran’s potential long-term control of this strategic strait has made Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf oil producers reliant on the strait for energy exports highly alert, while European and Asian energy consumers are likewise paying close attention.

According to reports citing a senior Trump administration official, the new round of formal US-Iran talks has not been finalized yet but is expected to be held Monday in Pakistan, most likely in Islamabad.

Vice President Vance is expected to chair the talks again, with Trump’s Middle East peace envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner joining. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly emphasized:

Only President Trump—not Iran—can decide who represents the US in the negotiations.

Risk Reminder and DisclaimerThe market carries risks and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users’ special investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk.