Trump: Iran wants talks but the US is "not interested," a "soon" heavy strike on Gachsaran nuclear facility, warns Houthis not to block the Red Sea
The US-Iran conflict still shows no clear sign of a ceasefire exit.
On Tuesday, the 21st local time, US President Trump clearly dampened expectations for talks between the US and Iran, saying Iran "desperately wants a meeting," but before Iran is ready for "meaningful talks," the US has "no interest" in meeting. He also stated that the struggle between the US and Iran "is far from over," and that the US will not leave Iran; even if Iran is only considering developing nuclear capabilities, the US will carry out strikes in the relevant regions.
CCTV mentioned that on that day Trump said the US would "soon" launch a strike against Iran’s underground nuclear facility at “Mountain Ghao” south of Natanz, and that the strike would be "very fierce."
In response to threats by the Yemen Houthi movement, believed to be supported by Iran, to blockade Saudi maritime transport, Trump issued a warning. According to Xinhua, on the 21st, during a meeting at the White House with visiting Lebanese President Aoun, Trump stated that if the Yemen Houthis blockade the Red Sea, the US will take action.
On Monday, news emerged that US-Iran mediators were attempting to push for a 10-day ceasefire, and Iran confirmed receiving the proposal. Trump’s latest position shows the US’s current priority remains military pressure, not an immediate return to the negotiating table. Not only has the US-Iran conflict shown no clear sign of cooling down, but it is developing along the path of "continued strikes against Iran — increased pressure on shipping — difficult diplomatic mediation."
Also on Tuesday, Iranian media IRNA reported that Iran has deployed new air defense systems. This move is seen as Iran strengthening its homeland air defense capabilities in response to possible further US airstrikes. With Trump making clear that the strike targets are aimed at deeper and harder-to-destroy underground facilities, the US-Iran military confrontation is exhibiting the characteristics of "simultaneous upgrades in offensive and defensive capabilities."
Trump: Iran "desperately wants a meeting," US-Iran struggle far from over, US "won’t leave tomorrow"
According to the AP, Trump said on the 21st at the White House that Iran "desperately wants" to meet with the US, but the US "has no interest" in meeting until Iran is ready for "meaningful talks."
Trump said that in backchannel communications, Iranian officials had already indicated they "desperately want to meet and try to end the war," because Iran "is taking a heavy hit."
But Trump did not signal he was ready to immediately push negotiations.
Instead, he set the premise for talks: Iran must first be ready for "meaningful talks."
This means, in Trump’s view, mere contact, ceasefire, or symbolic diplomatic communication is not enough to change the US’s current military course. The US wants to see Iran make substantial concessions on key issues before negotiations can truly start.
AP says Trump was pessimistic about the possibility of negotiations to end the war on that day.
Another signal released that day by Trump is even more noteworthy.
According to reports, Trump stated that the US-Iran struggle is "far from over," and the US will not leave Iran.
Asked whether Iran might be struck by the US simply for considering developing nuclear capabilities, Trump said the US would take action in the relevant region. He also said that Iran "hasn’t seen anything yet."
Trump also said that if the US leaves Iran the next day, it has already achieved "great success," but "we will not leave tomorrow."
This implies Trump does not view the previous military operations as a completed, limited action, but instead clearly reserves the option to continue increasing military pressure.
For the market, this is particularly important.
If the US defines the current operation as an ongoing long-term military action, then previous market expectations for a "quickly ending conflict and normal resumption of Hormuz Strait" may need to be repriced.
Trump threatens "soon" "very fierce" strikes against "Mountain Ghao" underground nuclear facility
While prospects for talks were dampened by Trump, US military threats escalated.
According to CCTV quoting Trump’s remarks during his meeting with Lebanese President Aoun at the White House on the 21st, Trump said the US will "soon" launch strikes against the "Mountain Ghao" underground facility south of Natanz in Iran, and the strike will be "very fierce."
Asked if Iran had moved centrifuges into the "Mountain Ghao" tunnel system, Trump said, "I think it’s possible they have, but we don’t have solid records." He added that unless Iran possesses nuclear material, having the facility alone is meaningless. "What we are tracking is the material, that is the key."
Trump also said in a TV program last week that the US "may soon take action against Mountain Ghao."
"Mountain Ghao" is located about 1.6 km south of Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment facility, with two deeply-buried tunnel complexes, considered among Iran’s most robust underground nuclear facilities. The Israeli side believes that after a 12-day war ended last June, Iran has moved advanced centrifuges and part of its highly enriched uranium stockpile into this underground facility.
If Trump’s threat eventually turns into real action, US strikes against Iran may expand further, from the previous targets of military facilities, missiles, and air defense targets, extending into deeper underground nuclear-related facilities.
With Iran having indicated the deployment of new air defense systems, both US and Iran are showing clear "offensive and defensive upgrades."
The US threatens striking deeper underground targets, while Iran tries to strengthen air defense. The targets and methods of both sides’ military actions are being upgraded, and the space for diplomatic negotiations is getting further squeezed.
10-day ceasefire plan faces real obstacles: current US focus remains "punishing Iran"
Even as Trump releases tough signals, diplomatic mediation has not stopped.
Some media reported on Monday that Qatar and other US-Iran mediation parties proposed a 10-day ceasefire plan, hoping to ease the US-Iran conflict and prompt both sides to resume previously reached temporary arrangements.
But according to Bloomberg quoting a US official, Trump’s current focus is to punish Iran for previous attacks against ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
The official said US military strikes will continue until Trump decides to change course; meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are still underway.
This actually creates a highly contradictory situation:
Diplomatic channels remain active, but military operations have not paused; ceasefire plan is underway, but Trump clearly states the US is currently not interested in meeting with Iran unless it is ready for "meaningful talks."
Therefore, whether the 10-day ceasefire plan can truly be implemented largely depends on whether both sides can first resolve the Hormuz Strait shipping issue, and whether Iran is willing to make the substantial commitments the US is demanding.
Reuters reports show that the market previously viewed ceasefire mediation as a hope for easing conflict and restoring Hormuz Strait shipping, but major disagreements remain between the US and Iran.
Houthis open new front in the Red Sea
The risks of the US-Iran conflict are not restricted to the Persian Gulf.
The Yemen Houthi movement recently announced "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia, warning ships docking at Saudi ports could face military strikes.
Reuters reports that after the Houthis issued the threat, two oil tankers loaded with Saudi oil and destined for Asia changed course to detour via the Suez Canal. Loading operations at Saudi Yanbu Port continue, but some vessels have shut down their tracking systems as precaution.
This means Saudi oil transport faces new uncertainties.
Saudi Arabia previously routed some oil via pipelines to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. If the Houthis further threaten the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, this backup route—meant to avoid Hormuz risks—may also be impacted.
Reuters says Houthi actions could have broader effects on global oil transport.
Trump: If the Red Sea is blocked, US will take action
Trump also issued a warning about the Red Sea situation on the 21st.
According to Xinhua, Trump said the Red Sea is "not blocked" at present, but "if it really happens, we will take action."
This means the US has left a clear space for further involvement in the Red Sea situation.
If the Houthis expand their "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia to actual military action against more vessels, the US may face a situation of dealing with crises in two key shipping routes:
One is the Strait of Hormuz, with core risk from direct US-Iran military conflict; the other is the Red Sea–Bab el-Mandeb, where risks come from Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia and related shipping.
This is one of the most critical changes to watch in the current Middle East situation.
Previously, the market mainly worried about disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, the Red Sea has again emerged as a realistic shipping threat. If both major shipping chokepoints are simultaneously affected by military risks, global energy transport, container shipping, insurance costs, and supply chain expenses may all take a hit.
US-Iran talks continue, but "ceasefire window" is narrowing
For now, diplomatic channels are not fully cut off between the US and Iran.
Mediators are still pushing for the 10-day ceasefire plan, and diplomatic efforts continue.
But judging from Trump’s latest remarks on the 21st, Washington is not ready to halt military action due to diplomatic mediation.
Trump’s logic is clear:Iran wants talks, but must first be ready for "meaningful talks;" the US can negotiate, but won’t reduce military pressure until its objectives are met.
Meanwhile, Trump also said the US will not leave Iran and hinted Iran "has not seen" the US’s full military capabilities.
Thus, the current US-Iran situation presents a dangerous "fighting while talking" state:
Diplomatic channels are open, but military actions continue; ceasefire plans have appeared, but the US President publicly says he’s not rushing to meet; Iran wants to end the conflict, but the US thinks Iran is still not ready for genuine negotiations.
Outside the battlefield, Houthi threats to Saudi shipping add new variables to the conflict.
Next, the market needs to watch three things:
- Whether Trump’s threatened strike against the "Mountain Ghao" underground facility actually happens;
- Whether the 10-day ceasefire plan can overcome the US’s "continued punishment of Iran" military course;
- Whether Houthi threats against Saudi shipping turn from warnings into real attacks.
If all three worsen at the same time, the US-Iran conflict may further spill into the Red Sea. The global market will face not just a short-term military conflict, but potentially a Middle East crisis impacting the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb shipping chokepoints simultaneously.
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