Trump is anxious! The big US-Iran deal in April—can we really look forward to it?

Trump has recently been sending frequent positive signals, and the possibility of a US-Iran agreement in April is rising. According to [CCTV News](https://content-static.cctvnews.cctv.com/snow-book/index.html?&item_id=5700417725286880529&toc_style_id=feeds_default&track_id=65EE15D2-EBEC-4BD2-8867-EB4079FAD571_797985330774&share_to=qq), citing US sources on the 15th, US President Trump stated that it is "very likely" that the US will reach an agreement with Iran in **late April** before King Charles III of the UK visits America. Earlier, on the 15th, the Industrial Securities strategy team released a research report stating that **the US-Iran negotiations now have both objective and subjective conditions for success, and a “Big Deal” may be reached within April, with the negotiations possibly being of a final arrangement. Maximum pressure is essentially “bluster,” and Trump’s “fighting to facilitate talks” strategy is showing initial results.** Specifically, the US faces a hard, time-bound constraint for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's "destroy" statement on March 30 locked him onto a fast-agreement track. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict has not escalated to ground warfare, Trump’s further escalation goals and tactics are unclear, and the opportunity cost of de-escalation is far lower than expanding the conflict. Also, the TACO Index has quickly fallen back to pre-conflict levels, and Trump still signaled “the war is over” on April 14, marking the first “decoupling” of his statements from the index, which may indicate substantial easing of geopolitical tensions. **As the two key dates—April 22 (ceasefire deadline) and April 28 (Congress authorization day)—draw near, the negotiation pace is expected to be “slow at first, then urgent.”** Iran cherishes the negotiation window as both “victim and victor”, and its economic difficulties mean high consensus on lifting sanctions; the US faces greater time pressure due to Trump’s approval rating dropping to 41%, with each side’s core demands forming a bottom-line support. Notably, according to [Xinhua News Agency’s report on the 15th](https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1862551255652543098), the US and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire by two weeks. ## Why the US must accelerate negotiations: Three hard constraints **1. Time constraint for reopening the Strait of Hormuz** This round of negotiations is fundamentally different from historical cases like the Korean War or Russia-Ukraine conflict, mainly because the US faces a hard time-bound constraint to reopen the Strait. On March 30, Trump openly pressured, saying if "a quick agreement" could not be achieved and the strait could not "reopen immediately," he would “destroy all Iran’s power plants, oil fields, and Khark Island.” **This statement locked Trump himself onto a fast-agreement track.** **2. War has not escalated to ground combat, de-escalation costs are lower** As of the report release, the US-Iran conflict has not developed into a ground war. **Compared to further escalation, Trump’s push for de-escalation has a much lower opportunity cost**. More critically, his strategic goals for further escalation are unclear and feasible tactical options ambiguous, causing expansion of conflict to be “high resistance but low motivation.” The US could fully abandon conditions aligned with Israeli demands, such as “not supporting resistance forces or restricting ballistic missiles,” proactively advancing negotiations with “maximum retreat.” **3. Historic “decoupling” signal in TACO Index** The TACO Index (comprised of S&P 500 inverse, 10-year US Treasury yield, US gasoline prices, Trump approval rating inverse, and 1-year inflation swap price) surged to a Trump second-term high at the end of March, then swiftly fell back after Trump’s nationwide speech on April 1 and US-Iran ceasefire announcement on April 7, approaching pre-conflict levels. The key signal: Against the backdrop of a rapidly falling TACO Index, Trump in an April 14 interview still sent signals that the war is “over” and “very close to being over”—**this marks the first decoupling of his statements from the TACO Index, possibly signifying real easing of geopolitical tensions.** **[IMAGE]** ## Negotiation pace: “Slow at first, then urgent”—Two bottom lines prevent breakdown As April 22 and April 28 approach, the negotiation pace is expected to be “slow at first, then urgent.” The report suggests core demands from both sides form the bottom-line support to prevent breakdown. **Iran’s core demand: Lifting sanctions.** Lifting all energy and financial sanctions is Iran’s primary concern. America showed strong sincerity early in negotiations. The Trump administration holds an open attitude toward re-signing an armistice with lifting sanctions in 2026, and did not treat “lifting sanctions” as a non-negotiable chip. **US core demand: Ensuring Strait passage.** The report points out Trump does not care whether Iran holds sovereignty over the Strait; his core objective is to curb excessive oil price rises and prevent a transmission to the US financial market via declines in Japanese, Korean, and European stock markets. Therefore, America has incentive for "maximum retreat", and may allow Iran to set up a fee system in the Strait of Hormuz in place of economic compensation, provided vessel passage is guaranteed. **Flexibility on the nuclear weapons issue.** Iran commits not to develop nuclear weapons, with specific details still negotiable. According to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, any non-nuclear state must not develop such weapons, while nuclear states must not conduct further tests. Iran signed the Iran nuclear agreement and had comprehensive talks with the US before the war started on February 28. The report notes "partial nuclear abandonment in exchange for lifting sanctions" could be a small step Iran is willing to take. For the US, verbal nuclear abandonment would suffice for domestic justification. According to [Xinhua News Agency](https://mil.huanqiu.com/article/4R9IQOhwNuK) citing Iran’s Mehr News Agency on the 13th, Iranian Islamic Parliament Deputy Speaker Nikzad stated Iran was ready to show goodwill in negotiations with the US by diluting approximately 450 kilograms of enriched uranium within its territory. ## Both sides cherish the negotiation window, but time pressure is asymmetric **Iran:** The report suggests the chance of Iran “asking an exorbitant price” is low. Judging by sending a luxury delegation in the first round, Iran greatly values securing a comprehensive agreement under the dual identity of “victim plus victor.” Current economic difficulties are highly relevant to sanctions, heightening the feasible consensus on lifting sanctions. **US:** Time is not on America’s side. **Trump’s approval rating has fallen rapidly to 41% (as of April 14), political pressures will be transmitted to the negotiation team, pushing quick results to continue the “victory through negotiation” narrative.** Additionally, there is a neglected structural constraint: with the US capital market heavily reliant on the global semiconductor supply chain, Trump must beware of supply disruptions for power generation LNG and helium impacting supply-chain-dominant firms—electricity or helium shortages could cause TSMC production halts, undermining the logic of high valuations in US equities. **[IMAGE]** **[IMAGE]**Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets have risks, investment needs caution. 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