Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes on Iran.

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After 13 consecutive days of airstrikes by the United States, President Trump suddenly hit the brakes. Analysts say this decision reflects his deepening strategic predicament in this protracted conflict.

According to CCTV News, on July 25 local time, Trump ordered the US military not to launch new airstrikes against Iran that day, ending nearly two weeks of consecutive daily attacks. According to two informed sources, this move was aimed on one hand at leaving room for diplomatic negotiations, and on the other hand because Trump believed that, without restarting large-scale military action, the current airstrikes had basically reached their maximum effect. Meanwhile, an Omani delegation has arrived in Tehran to negotiate reopening the Strait of Hormuz for navigation, and informed sources said the two sides are expected to reach an agreement by this weekend.

However, this conflict has far exceeded Trump’s original expectations. The war, jointly launched by the US and Israel at the end of February this year, has now entered its fifth month. Brent crude oil prices broke above $100 a barrel in intraday trading this Thursday, and US gasoline prices have risen along with it, further dimming the Republican Party’s prospects in the November midterm elections. According to media reports, polls show the Democrats now lead Republicans by 11 percentage points in general ballot tests.

Pausing Airstrikes: Diplomatic Window or Tactical Adjustment

According to CCTV News, Trump had previously approved military strike plans against Iran every day, but after receiving a new operational plan on the 25th, he did not approve its execution and directly ordered airstrikes to be suspended for the day. It remains unclear whether this decision is a temporary one-day arrangement, or if military operations will be paused for a longer period.

The US military is still developing contingency plans to resume large-scale operations, and can restart strikes quickly if so ordered by Trump. In an interview at the White House on the 24th, Trump said that the US reserves the option of continuing airstrikes or even escalating further — "we can destroy everything they have" — but he also emphasized that reaching an agreement with Iran "is the smarter strategy". He said that both sides are "in talks" and that Iran is "getting more serious by the day".

The decision to pause airstrikes nearly coincided with diplomatic progress. CCTV News noted that only hours before Trump ordered the suspension, an Omani delegation had arrived in Tehran for negotiations on a new arrangement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to two regional sources familiar with the talks, negotiations have made progress, and Oman and Iran are expected to reach an agreement by the weekend, by which time Trump will decide whether to accept the plan.

Nevertheless, there remains great uncertainty whether the negotiations can achieve a substantive breakthrough. Reports note that Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have opened up a new front in the conflict, raising doubts about the safety of alternate routes to the Strait of Hormuz. Analyst Michael Knights stated:

"I think we are entering a period of sustained escalation between the US and Iran’s threat network, with both sides capable of keeping the conflict going for months."

It is reported that in the past two weeks, Trump has proposed a series of plans to break the deadlock, including imposing a 20% transit fee on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which was withdrawn after pressure from Gulf allies, and a proposal to use confiscated Iranian funds as compensation for attacks, but neither plan provided specific details. To outsiders, these moves appear to be attempts to find a way out rather than signs of strategic resolve.

Strategic Dilemma: No Way Back, No Way Forward

According to media reports, Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described Trump’s current situation as "a menu full of bad options". Withdrawing would be a political embarrassment, escalation involves uncontrollable risks, and previous negotiations led by Vice President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff, and son-in-law Jared Kushner, only resulted in a fragile memorandum of understanding. "If you ask me where the way out is, I would tell you that so far, I don’t see one," Aaron David Miller said.

This conflict has become a hallmark dilemma of Trump’s administration. He mentions the war at nearly all public events and posts about it frequently on social media. During his 2024 campaign, Trump promised to keep America out of overseas wars, but recently admitted at an event that he has built "the world’s most powerful military," and acknowledged, "We’re using it a bit more often than I expected, but that’s okay."

Economic Cost: Soaring Oil Prices, Midterm Election Pressure

Brent crude hit $100 a barrel this week, and the politically sensitive US gasoline price has also surged, constituting a direct threat to Republican performance in the November midterms. Republican allies had hoped the conflict would cool at this stage, lessening its electoral impact.

Poll data is causing concern among Republicans. Emerson College polling shows Democrats lead by 11 percentage points in general ballot tests; Fox News polling shows Democrats lead by 9 points on economic issues, traditionally Trump’s strong suit. Trump himself has said that if Democrats retake the House, he expects to face impeachment again.

Meanwhile, the issue of war funding remains unresolved. A supplemental funding bill has nearly stalled in Congress, forcing the government to shuffle funds, further worsening tensions between the executive branch and Congress. Reports say Trump has done little to lobby for the bill, and with energy prices high, lawmakers lack political incentive to support it.

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