Trump plans to give every American adult $5,000; US media calculates the total to be a staggering $1.2 trillion, far exceeding the revenue from tariffs.

Trump has made another major campaign promise, but calculations show that the fiscal cost of this plan far exceeds what the tariff revenue can cover, and debt pressure and inflation risks are emerging.

According to CCTV International News, on September 9 local time, US President Trump said at the Republican midterm election convention in Dallas that if Republicans win a majority of seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, he promises to give $5,000 to all American adults.

He called the money a "Trump bonus" and likened it to dividends paid by a publicly traded company to its shareholders, but this money must be spent within the United States . Vice President Vance stated that this "bonus" would come from U.S. tariff revenue.

According to multiple media estimates, the total size of this funding is between $1.2 trillion and $1.3 trillion. MarketWatch estimates show a significant gap between the actual cost of the plan and the revenue from tariffs. Meanwhile, the plan's implementation itself is highly uncertain—market forecasting data currently indicates only a 15% probability of Republicans winning both the House and Senate.

Cost estimates: Over $1.2 trillion, tariffs unlikely to cover

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, as of July last year, the total U.S. population was approximately 342 million, of which about 79%, or approximately 270 million, were adults aged 18 and over. If further limited to U.S. citizens, the number of eligible individuals would be approximately 240 million, corresponding to a total cost of approximately $1.2 trillion .

This figure is equivalent to nearly 70% of the US's $1.8 trillion fiscal deficit last year, and does not include any new stimulus spending. In contrast, the tariff revenue mentioned by Vance is far from sufficient to cover this expenditure.

According to calculations by the Yale Budget Lab, including the latest tariffs imposed on Canada, the current tariff policy is expected to generate approximately $1.9 trillion in revenue over the next decade, averaging about $190 billion per year, which is only about one-sixth of the cost of a single "Trump bonus".

Debt and Inflation: Fiscal Pressures May Rise Further

Without other sources of revenue, this expenditure will ultimately translate into new government debt.

As of Tuesday, the total size of the U.S. national debt reached $39.9 trillion, of which $32.4 trillion was held by the public. The recent continuous rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields is largely attributed to market concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt expansion; the 30-year Treasury yield has now risen to 5.312%.

Inflation risks should not be ignored. The US inflation rate has already risen to 3.4% annually. Large-scale cash handouts could further stimulate consumer spending, increasing demand-side pressure. Economists generally believe that over 60% of new household income will eventually translate into consumer spending. Last year, total US personal consumption expenditure approached $21 trillion, while personal income was approximately $26 trillion. Injecting over $1 trillion more into household spending could significantly stimulate aggregate demand.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's policy response could also weaken the economic effects of this policy. In the absence of additional fiscal stimulus, the market is already betting on a Fed rate hike this month with approximately a 60% probability. If the large-scale cash handout ultimately materializes, further increases in inflationary pressures could prompt a tighter monetary policy, thus partially offsetting the economic boost from the cash stimulus.

Real Impact: What does $5,000 mean to the average American?

From a personal finance perspective, $5,000 is equivalent to about 8% of the median annual salary of approximately $65,000 for full-time workers in the United States, which is still a significant amount of cash income for the average family. Trump himself has also attempted to define it as a distribution of national revenue similar to "shareholder dividends" and has demanded that the funds be spent within the United States to highlight its stimulating effect on domestic consumption and economic growth.

Whether this promise can be fulfilled depends first and foremost on whether the Republican Party can win both the House and Senate in the midterm elections. According to Kalshi's market forecasting data, the current probability of this outcome is only 15%.

In addition, Trump had previously proposed similar ideas such as tariff "dividends" and "DOGE dividends," but none of them were ultimately implemented.

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