Trump pressures Russia, oil prices briefly surpass 70 mark, set for biggest weekly gain since US-Iran conflict

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As geopolitical pressures intensify, international oil prices recorded the largest weekly gain in more than three months, with Brent crude briefly breaking through the key psychological threshold of $70 per barrel.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump met with Turkish President Erdogan at the White House on the 25th and told media reporters at the start of the meeting, “I hope he (Erdogan) will stop buying oil from Russia.” Earlier this week, he also criticized NATO member states for purchasing Russian fuel.

On the same day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the current gasoline export ban, already in place, will be extended until the end of the year and that, on the basis of gasoline restrictions, an additional ban on diesel exports by non-producers will be introduced.

Trump’s pressure has heightened concerns in the crude oil market. Combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Friday and a weakening dollar, this jointly pushed up oil prices. On Friday, Brent crude finally closed above $70 per barrel for the first time since the end of July, recording a weekly gain of 5.2%. WTI crude closed near $66 per barrel.

Meanwhile, trader participation further amplified the rally. Data shows that commodity trading advisors (CTAs) turned net long for the first time since early August, indicating a key technical shift in the market.

Geopolitical Powder Keg Ignites Oil Rally

In addition to Trump directly pressuring buyers of Russian oil, Ukraine has also intensified drone attacks against Russian energy infrastructure, directly threatening its supply capacity.

According to sources cited by the media, European diplomats issued a warning to the Kremlin this week, stating that NATO is ready to respond to any further incursions into its airspace, including the possible downing of Russian aircraft.

In addition, reports said that after U.S. diplomatic efforts failed to ease the deadlock triggered by Iran's nuclear program, the United Nations will reimpose broad sanctions on Iran, which could further tighten global crude oil supply.

Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and oil market researcher, stated:

"At present, shorting the market is very risky, and there are still large speculative short positions accumulated in the entire crude oil market, which further increases risks."

Technical Buying Amplifies the Rally

Market tensions are also reflected at the trading level.

According to Bridgeton Research Group data, Commodity trading advisors (CTAs), who tend to amplify price swings, turned net long on Friday for the first time since early August.

Data shows that traders’ positions on Brent crude shifted from 27% net short the previous day to 27% net long, while U.S. WTI crude positions turned neutral.

Strong U.S. PCE inflation data provided additional support to oil prices on Friday, easing concerns about a deteriorating short-term demand outlook. At the same time, a weaker dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Complex Supply Prospects, Bullish and Bearish Factors Intertwined

Although geopolitical risks have pushed up oil prices, the outlook for supply remains complicated.

Forecasting agencies, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), expect that, driven by increased output from OPEC+ and non-OPEC oil producers (especially in the Americas), market oversupply will emerge later this year.

Currently, the market generally expects OPEC+ to approve a new round of production increases in November, in an effort to regain global market share.

Kim Fustier, Senior Global Oil & Gas Analyst at HSBC Plc, stated:

"The organization has already accepted a market share strategy. We are skeptical that it will back down due to a sharp drop in oil prices."

Media reports cited informed sources as saying that Saudi Arabia hopes to offset income losses from possible oil price drops by increasing sales and to recapture market share lost in recent years to competitors such as U.S. shale oil. This move is also seen as intended to demonstrate to the market that other OPEC+ member states’ spare capacity is much lower than generally expected.

In addition, a substantial new supply is about to enter the market. According to reports, crude oil from the Iraqi Kurdish region exported via Turkey’s Ceyhan Port will resume shipments on Saturday after a hiatus of more than two years. The initial resumption amount will be 230,000 barrels per day, which could rise to 500,000 barrels per day in the future.

However, the market reacted indifferently to this news, with traders speculating that most of the suspended oil had previously been diverted for domestic consumption or exported to neighboring countries.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, investment should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at your own risk. ```