Trump said that a US-Iran agreement has basically been reached, including provisions to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media stated it would continue to be "managed" by Iran, while Israeli media said it is "very unfavorable for Israel."
```
The US-Iran war may be approaching a turning point.
On the afternoon of May 23, Eastern Time, US President Trump posted that the US and Iran have basically negotiated an agreement, pending finalization by both sides and relevant Islamic countries. The "final step" is under discussion and will be announced soon.
However, there are significant disagreements over this agreement—Iran insists that the Strait of Hormuz remains under its management, while Israel has held an emergency meeting and media claim the agreement is "very unfavorable" to Israel.
What does the agreement cover: Ending the war as priority, postponing the nuclear issue
According to Xinhua News Agency, US media Axios cited a US official saying that the agreement is close to completion, with remaining differences mainly focused on the "wording" of several key provisions.
The core framework of the memorandum of understanding is: ending the war, gradually reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and initiating at least 30 days of follow-up negotiations.
However, the official also emphasized that Trump has not made a final decision and may still veto the agreement and order new attacks on Iran.
Earlier, Trump himself told Axios that the probability of reaching an agreement or "bombing them to the sky" is "fifty-fifty."
According to Xinhua, Iran will condition the reopening of the strait on the US lifting its maritime blockade, gradually relaxing sanctions and unfreezing certain assets.
It is worth noting that the nuclear issue has been explicitly postponed.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that the current focus of the negotiations is to end the "imposed war," and the nuclear issue is not being discussed in depth for now—the reason is that the nuclear issue has twice served as a pretext for launching wars against Iran.
Iran's demands for lifting sanctions and releasing frozen assets have been written into 14 provision texts of the memorandum of understanding. The nuclear issue might be negotiated again in 30 to 60 days.
Israeli media report that Iran's ballistic missile program is not even on the agenda for negotiations.
On the mediation side, the Pakistan Inter-Services Public Relations stated on the 23rd that Army Chief Munir's "brief but highly effective" visit to Iran has concluded successfully, and intensive consultations have achieved "encouraging" progress, bringing the US-Iran final reconciliation goal closer.
On the same day, Trump spoke with leaders of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, as well as Pakistan's Army Chief Munir.
Axios cited regional sources saying that many leaders urged Trump to accept the agreement, with the core message being "please stop the war for the benefit of the entire region."
Mediators hope to complete and announce this one-page framework agreement by Sunday, and launch detailed negotiations within a few days.
US Vice President Vance and Defense Secretary Hegseth have been recalled to Washington to discuss agreement matters.
Israel in anxiety?
According to Xinhua, Iran's Fars News Agency reported early morning on the 24th that according to the latest exchanged texts, even if the agreement is reached, the strait will still be "managed" by Iran—route planning, timing and mode of vessel passage, and licensing will all be exclusively controlled by Iran.
Iran agrees to restore the number of passing ships to pre-war levels, but this does not mean "free passage."
Baghaei also emphasized that the Strait of Hormuz "has nothing to do with the US" and is a matter between Iran and coastal countries.
Israel's reaction is the most intense.
According to Xinhua, Netanyahu convened leaders of all ruling coalition parties and security department heads for a meeting that night.
Channel 12 TV in Israel quoted Israeli officials saying that US envoy Witkoff will "do almost anything" to reach an agreement, and is exerting huge pressure on Trump to prevent the war from restarting.
The media say if the disclosed provisions are true, the agreement would be "terrible" for Israel, and its content is completely at odds with Netanyahu's public statements.
Other media report that Netanyahu has urged Trump to abandon the agreement and opt for new attacks on Iran.
However, Israeli media also point out that Trump and Netanyahu still maintain close coordination.
Trump says their phone talks are going "very well."
Meanwhile, the US domestic front is not unified.
Media report that several Republican hawkish lawmakers have publicly issued statements opposed to reaching an agreement in the past few hours.
Prediction markets are already pricing it in. On Polymarket, the contract for "US-Iran reach a permanent peace agreement before May 26" has surged to 56 cents, implying a 56% probability, with trading volume reaching 6 million USD.
Bitcoin’s price also showed a clear event-driven pattern that day: early trading was pressured by expectations of "long weekend war risk," but after Trump's post, it surged rapidly, reaching a daily high of $76,676.
Risk Warning and DisclaimerMarkets are risky, and investments must be made cautiously. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it take into account the unique investment goals, financial circumstances, or needs of any particular user. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article match their specific circumstances. All investments made based on this article are at your own risk. ```