Trump says "Freedom Plan" is suspended, observing whether an agreement can be reached with Iran.

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U.S. President Trump announced a short-term suspension of the “Freedom Initiative,” which aimed to facilitate the passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, in order to assess whether a final agreement to end the war with Iran could be reached and signed.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the evening of the 5th Eastern U.S. time, Trump announced this decision on social media. This move came just a day after the U.S. Navy deployed two missile destroyers into the Persian Gulf and launched the initiative.

Trump stated that the U.S. and Iranian representatives had made “significant progress” toward reaching a comprehensive final agreement. He noted that the suspension of the escort operation was made at the request of Pakistan and other countries. Pakistan is currently mediating negotiations between Washington and Tehran. However, he emphasized that the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports would remain “fully effective.”

This policy adjustment comes as the military action aimed at easing strait traffic triggered fierce armed conflict on its first day. Preliminary data shows that the brief U.S. military intervention failed to substantially boost commercial shipping traffic, with only six vessels passing through on the first day.

Analysts point out that ongoing physical and reputational risks continue to hinder the shipping industry’s return to the region. In the absence of clear security guarantees, even with military intervention, restoring the confidence of markets and insurance companies remains the core challenge in alleviating the current energy trade crisis.

Limited Escort Effectiveness: Only Six Vessels Passed on the First Day

The “Freedom Initiative” was initially characterized by the U.S. government as a humanitarian effort intended to resume the flow of energy and other goods. However, the operation failed to assuage shipping companies’ safety concerns and triggered a new round of violent conflict on Monday. According to reports, Iran launched cruise missiles in the area and deployed drones and armed boats to attack civilian vessels.

According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, on the first day of the new U.S. initiative (Monday), only six vessels successfully passed through the strait. By Tuesday, traffic further declined, with only one vessel passing the waters as of Tuesday afternoon.

Before the outbreak of the war, about 130 ships traversed the waterway daily.

Naveen Das, senior analyst at commodity and shipping data firm Kpler, said the new initiative had not fundamentally changed the situation, and the shipping industry was still unwilling to bear the risks of returning to the area.

He noted that, in addition to the physical risks of crew casualties and ship damage, being among the "first movers" would risk considerable reputational damage if attacked. Notably, some Iran-linked vessels are still traversing the strait; data shows that on Monday, the U.S.-sanctioned oil tanker Nooh Gas, carrying 129,000 barrels of liquefied gas, passed through.

Strategic Tools Exhausted: U.S. Faces Pressure Bottleneck

This maritime operation marks a shift in the pattern of U.S.-Iran conflict. After 40 days of bombing, the U.S. imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in April, cutting off its crucial oil revenue.

Bryan Clark, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former senior U.S. Navy official, pointed out that the U.S. had already taken the highest level of escalatory measures, including strikes on Iranian leadership and weapons facilities, but had not forced the other side to yield. At present, the U.S. government lacks further means to coerce Iran and can only try to restore shipping.

Although General Dan Caine, Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, emphasized that commercial ships would be able to “see, hear, and feel” America’s military might at sea and in the air, the current environment is very different from the “Tanker War” of the 1980s. Back then, the U.S. Navy escorted Gulf ships with a force nearly twice as large as today, whereas now Iran possesses large numbers of cheap one-way attack drones and a “mosquito fleet” of fast boats.

Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at the UK’s Royal United Services Institute and former UK Ministry of Defence official, concluded that controlling the strait is not purely a matter of military power—it is also an issue of market confidence, insurer confidence, and civilian shipping confidence. For commercial operators, uncertainty about how new transit plans would function remains the main deterrent.

Although Trump has sent positive signals about resolving the conflict through negotiations, senior U.S. officials admit that negotiations still face many challenges due to internal divisions in Iran. Currently, the fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran is facing a severe test.

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