Trump Says "No End Date," US-Iran Enter "Game of Chicken," Global Economy Pays the Price
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The struggle between the US and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz is plunging into a high-risk "game of chicken."
As peace talks stall and mutual maritime blockades continue to escalate, this geopolitical conflict is rapidly evolving from confrontation at the military and diplomatic level into a prolonged struggle testing the resilience of global energy supply chains and the economy.
According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated clearly on the 22nd that there is currently "no timetable" for ending the conflict with Iran, and there is no need to rush.
This remark further reinforces market expectations of a protracted conflict.
According to other media reports, because Iran refused to send a delegation at the last moment, US Vice President JD Vance's scheduled trip to Islamabad to restart negotiations has been postponed indefinitely, completely dashing the market's expectations for a short-term agreement between the two sides.
The political stalemate is quickly translating into shocks to energy supply expectations.
As a result, Brent crude oil prices have risen for three consecutive trading days and have broken through $101 a barrel, while near-month WTI crude futures have not only recovered their previous losses but climbed above the levels before the breakdown of negotiations.
The signals emerging from the spot market are even more tense: spot Brent crude oil prices have risen above $107, and US gasoline prices have hit their highest level in nearly four years, indicating that the market has begun pricing in the risk of a short-term supply shortage.
Despite the extension of the military ceasefire agreement, confrontation between the two sides in economic and shipping fields continues to escalate.
The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint responsible for about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation, remains obstructed, which not only heightens concerns about energy supplies but also significantly increases the risk of global supply chain disruptions and renewed inflationary pressures.
Stalled Negotiations and Indefinite Pressure
After the collapse of peace talks, the White House held urgent consultations.
According to media reports, Trump and his security team, including JD Vance, evaluated several options, including resuming bombing. In the end, Trump chose to extend the ceasefire and maintain economic pressure on Iran until Tehran presents concrete negotiation proposals.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump, in an interview with Fox News Channel, denied rumors of a "3 to 5 day window" for the ceasefire, stressed there is "no time pressure" on the ceasefire, and rejected claims that he is eager to end the conflict due to the mid-term elections.
Iran, on the other hand, regards the American blockade as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pointed out that blocking Iranian ports and attacking commercial vessels constitutes a breach of the ceasefire agreement.
Due to the US's continued tightening of the port blockade, Iran's hardliners refuse to return to the negotiating table under the ongoing pressure.
Mutual Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
Away from the negotiating table, both sides are using maritime blockades to gain bargaining chips.
The US maintains a naval blockade around Iranian ports, intending to cut off the country's oil export revenues.
The US continues to intercept ships entering and leaving Iranian ports. According to US Central Command data, since the blockade began, the US military has ordered 28 vessels to turn back or return to port.
At the same time, the US military boarded a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, continuing to target the so-called "shadow fleet" that helps Iran evade sanctions.
In retaliation, Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, restricting access for nearly all other international vessels.
According to comprehensive media reports, Iranian gunboats opened fire within the strait on several commercial freighters and container ships, including the MSC Francesca, Epaminondas, and Euphoria. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also seized two ships and brought them back to shore for inspection.
Responding to Iranian forces firing on and seizing passing vessels, Trump said: "Those are not American ships," and stated he would closely monitor developments.
However, the US blockade is not airtight.
According to the data intelligence company Vortexa, at least 34 oil and gas tankers related to Iran successfully passed through the strait and US blockade lines this week.
Game of Leverage and the Cost to the World Economy
The current deadlock is essentially both sides' tactical game to seize bargaining advantages under maximum pressure.
The US hopes to weaken Iran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage through the maritime blockade, while Iran's hardliners are trying to demonstrate their ability to endure economic pain and drag out the conflict in a war of attrition.
"This is purely an action to seek bargaining chips," said Behnam Ben Taleblu, of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "In the short term, it demonstrates America's determination. This is important because this war is both a test of will and a contest over energy and security."
But he also noted that the blockade itself is a high-risk gamble:
"The bet is that Iran will concede before the rest of the world does, but it's an extremely risky wager. The Iranian regime is fighting for its survival and has already proven it can withstand having its oil exports choked off."
Michael Singh, former senior director for Middle Eastern affairs at the US National Security Council and now at the Washington Institute, believes that the blockade has, to some extent, rebalanced the pressure dynamics.
"Previously, Iran was still exporting oil while other countries couldn't pass freely, which meant both time and pressure were against Washington."
But he also warned that this strategy may be a double-edged sword for the US.
As the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and global energy prices rise, US domestic energy costs and global inflation pressures are climbing in tandem. The longer the conflict lasts, the harder it will be to control its spillover impact on the global economy.
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