Trump says U.S.-Iran deal is basically reached, oil prices plummet, U.S. stock futures and gold rise simultaneously

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Expectations for a US-Iran agreement are rising, improving global market risk sentiment. Oil prices are under downward pressure, while stock index futures and gold are moving higher simultaneously.

On Monday, Brent crude fell more than 4%, hitting a two-week low. At the same time, Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 1%, S&P 500 index futures gained 0.62%, spot gold’s gains expanded to 1.3%, and spot silver’s gains widened to 4%. The US dollar weakened against all G10 currencies.

On the news front, Trump said on social media Saturday that the US-Iran agreement was basically reached, including opening the Strait of Hormuz, and informed the US representative there was no need to rush to finalize a deal. But on Sunday he stated the agreement was “not fully settled yet.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio previously said there could be “some good news” about the Hormuz situation within the next few hours.

The Iranian side is cautious. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency warned that because the US set obstacles on several key clauses—including Iran’s demand to unfreeze assets—the draft agreement still risks breaking down.

Oil prices pressured: vessels begin crossing, but volatility may persist

The immediate catalyst for the drop in oil prices is improvement in the actual passage situation at the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Iran’s Student News Agency citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, within 24 hours on Sunday, a total of 33 vessels—including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial ships—passed through the Strait of Hormuz after receiving authorization from the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.

Brent crude fell more than 4%, and WTI crude once fell over 5%.

However, ANZ Bank strategists such as David Croy pointed out in a client report: "Although any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is positive for global oil flows, the fluidity of negotiations and unresolved differences indicate that oil price volatility may continue for some time."

Gold rising: inflation expectations ease, but rate pressure remains

Spot gold was reported at $4567.6 per ounce, up 1.35%. Spot silver rose 4%, platinum and palladium also climbed simultaneously.

Gold previously fell 0.7% last Friday, as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that an energy shock triggered by an Iranian war could push up inflation, heightening expectations for monetary tightening.

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict at the end of February this year, gold has cumulatively dropped about 14%. It has maintained a narrow range amid the tug-of-war between high interest rate expectations and high inflation-low growth scenarios. Rising expectations for a US-Iran agreement have somewhat alleviated market concerns about oil-driven inflation, thereby providing support for gold.

IG Sydney analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a client report that Friday’s upward momentum “looks set to continue,” although any agreement may still break down, “but the market currently seems inclined to interpret related news positively.”

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