Trump suddenly "hit the brakes," saying the previously planned Tuesday attack on Iran was postponed at the request of three Middle Eastern countries.
US President Trump once again introduces a major variable to the Middle East situation.
According to Xinhua News, on Monday afternoon, Eastern US time (18th), Trump posted on social media stating that, at the request of the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, he has ordered "tomorrow (19th)" to not attack Iran as originally planned.
According to CCTV News, Trump stated that given that serious negotiations are underway, and in the opinions of the Middle Eastern leaders and allies mentioned above, both sides will ultimately reach an agreement. Most importantly, this agreement will explicitly include the following core term: Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.
CCTV mentioned that Trump said he has instructed Secretary of Defense Hegseth, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane, and the US military that the attack on Iran planned for the 19th will not proceed. However, he also issued further instructions: if a satisfactory agreement cannot be reached, the US military must always maintain a state of readiness, prepared at any moment to launch a comprehensive, large-scale military strike against Iran.
This statement means that after sending tough signals to Iran for several consecutive days, the Trump administration suddenly hit the brakes at the last minute, temporarily easing tensions in the Middle East.
International crude oil prices quickly gave back part of their gains. On Monday, during the US stock market's midday session, the July contract for US WTI crude oil, which had risen over 4% intraday to $105.20, once fell below $102, with gains from last Friday narrowing to less than 1%.
In the past few days, Trump has been continuously pressing Iran through social media and public statements. In an interview on Sunday, May 17, he warned, "Iran doesn't have much time left," and "the clock is ticking," demanding Iran take action quickly or "there will be nothing left." Earlier on Monday, according to CCTV News, Trump said he is "not considering" making any concessions to the Iranian government, and warned that Iran knows "what's about to happen."
Meanwhile, multiple media outlets previously revealed that the US Department of Defense has been making "intensive preparations" for a potential new round of military action against Iran, including possibly expanding strikes on Iran's critical infrastructure.
Gulf allies urgently pressured, Trump changed his decision last minute
According to Trump's social media post on Monday, a key reason for changing his decision to attack Iran was direct intervention by Gulf country leaders.
Trump said the Emir of Qatar, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, and the President of the UAE all expressed their concerns to the US, hoping to avoid further escalation and requesting the US not to launch the planned attack on Tuesday. Trump then said he had "agreed" to postpone the action.
This shift highlights that, though the US's traditional Gulf allies rely on Washington for security, they are highly alert to further loss of control in the situation.
The past few weeks have seen ongoing tension in the Middle East. The market is especially concerned that if the US expands military action against Iran, it may threaten transportation safety in the Strait of Hormuz and further disrupt the global energy supply chain.
Reports have stated that Gulf nations are trying to play a buffering role between the US and Iran, hoping to avoid an all-out regional war.
The market had already heavily bet on escalating conflict
In fact, before Trump's latest statement, financial markets had started trading on the logic of "rising Middle East risk."
Oil prices have recently fluctuated at high levels, amid worries the US might resume expanded military strikes on Iran; risk aversion has also driven some funds into gold and dollar assets.
Trump's series of tough statements earlier further reinforced market expectations of military escalation.
On Saturday, May 16, Trump publicly stated that military strikes against Iran were "to be continued," and said he would "not have much more patience."
Multiple media outlets also reported that the US side has been assessing further strike plans targeting Iran's energy, electricity, and military facilities.
Therefore, the sudden postponement of action this time has an obvious "cooling down" effect on the market.
Trump still maintains a tough stance
However, Trump's temporary postponement does not mean that US-Iran relations have significantly eased.
From Trump's recent statements, his core strategy remains "maximum pressure + retained military deterrence."
On one hand, he agreed to delay the attack; on the other hand, he continues to emphasize that Iran must quickly accept US conditions and warns that "time is critical."
Analysis suggests that Trump's move is more like seeking a balance between Gulf ally coordination and military deterrence: both avoiding huge impacts to regional allies from war escalation, while still maintaining high pressure on Iran.
Next, market focus will shift to:
- Whether Gulf countries will further promote US-Iran contact;
- Whether the US is only "postponing" rather than truly abandoning military plans;
- Whether Iran will make new concessions on the nuclear and regional security issues;
- Whether the risk in the Strait of Hormuz will heat up again.
For the global market, although there is a short-term breathing window for the Middle East situation, the risks are clearly far from resolved.
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