Trump threatens: If Iran refuses to compromise, he will control the Strait of Hormuz to strike Iran's economy.

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U.S.-Iran talks broke down, and Trump immediately issued a threat to blockade the Strait, casting a shadow over the future of passage through the world's most important energy route, the Strait of Hormuz.

According to CCTV News, on the 12th local time, U.S. President Trump reposted an article on his social media, stating that if Iran refuses to compromise, his trump card may be for the U.S. Navy to control the Strait of Hormuz, banning Iranian oil tankers from entering and exiting, thereby striking Iran's economy. This statement came within hours after the failure of the U.S.-Iran-Pakistan negotiations.

With the breakdown of negotiations and the threat to the strait fermenting simultaneously, the market is becoming increasingly cautious about the direction of the situation. According to CCTV News, Iran refused to accept the "joint control" plan proposed by the U.S., insisted on retaining control of the strait, and said it has the right to charge "transit fees" to passing ships. Ebrahim Azizi, Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted on social media on the 11th, stating that passage through the Strait of Hormuz must obtain permission from the Iranian side.

In this round of negotiations, the issue of control over the Strait of Hormuz became the greatest point of contention. Both sides have made very tough statements, and this confrontation is unlikely to ease in the short term.

Trump's repost: Naval blockade could cut off Iran's economic lifeline

In the article reposted by Trump, titled "If Iran Refuses to Back Down, the President's Trump Card is: Naval Blockade," Lexington Institute national security expert Rebecca Grant stated that the U.S. Navy is currently fully capable of controlling passage through the Strait of Hormuz. She added that if Iran maintains a tough stance, the U.S. military can deploy strong naval surveillance forces to monitor all ships entering and exiting the strait. "At that time, passage through the narrow waterways near Kharg Island or Oman would require U.S. permission."

The article quotes Jack Keane, one of America's top military strategists and a retired general, as saying that if war reignites, after sufficiently weakening Iran's remaining military forces, the U.S. military could choose to occupy or destroy Kharg Island. In addition, the U.S. Navy could also impose a blockade, cutting off Tehran's oil export lifeline.

Keane further pointed out that if the infrastructure on Kharg Island can be preserved and the area brought under actual control, the U.S. military would be choking Iran's oil and economic lifeline.

Strait control: the most pressing issue in the negotiations

The status of passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the most urgent issue in this round of talks, and after the talks collapsed, it remains the most market-sensitive unresolved question.

According to CCTV News, the ship tracking website "Marine Traffic" shows that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is currently still extremely limited, with all transiting ships passing under direct Iranian surveillance. Since the ceasefire, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy has reduced strait traffic to a very low level and implemented a fee system.

According to media reports, Trump has shown increasing impatience with Iran's delay in reopening the strait, while reopening is one of the prerequisites of the two-week ceasefire agreement. Suzanne Maloney, director of the Brookings Institution’s Foreign Policy program, stated that Iran's public efforts to unfreeze billions of dollars in assets suggest that this will be one of its conditions for temporarily relaxing the blockade of the strait. She also warned that "the strait issue is the most urgent, and the U.S. must not let the strait issue overshadow the core conflict—the nuclear issue."

During the negotiations, a military standoff already erupted in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. media quoted American officials as saying that two U.S. destroyers passed from east to west through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, and then returned to the Arabian Sea via the same strait. U.S. Central Command stated that after completing their mission in the Persian Gulf, the two destroyers left as planned without incident. This move was meant to show that the U.S. does not accept Iranian control over the strait and launched a broader mission to use underwater drones to clear sea mines from the strait. On the 11th, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. has "begun clearing the Strait of Hormuz," claiming that all 28 of Iran's mine-laying boats "are at the bottom of the sea."

The Iranian version of events is completely different. According to Xinhua News Agency quoting Tasnim News Agency, after closely monitoring the position of U.S. destroyers, the Iranian armed forces issued a stern warning and conveyed the situation to the U.S. delegation through Pakistan, explicitly warning that "if U.S. naval vessels continue to sail, they will be sunk within 30 minutes, and U.S.-Iran talks will be affected as a result." On April 12, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy stated in a declaration that it retains full management authority over the Strait of Hormuz, currently only allowing non-military ships to pass according to specific regulations.

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