Trump Trading Manual: Now Entering Step Nine
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The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is progressing precisely according to a repeatedly verified script.
According to the latest statement from US independent macro research firm The Kobeissi Letter, with Trump announcing a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US, Iran, and Israel, the ninth step of the “conflict script” tracked by the firm has officially arrived, that is, the agreement is reached and a narrative framework is being constructed. This step came about ten days later than the institution previously expected.
The Kobeissi Letter states that, in accordance with the Trump deal playbook, every major confrontation within the Trump framework ultimately ends with the narrative of “maximum pressure in exchange for concessions.”
This development’s potential impact on the market cannot be ignored. The Kobeissi Letter points out that the tenth step—violent market repricing after the formal announcement of the agreement—will come in the next few weeks. At that time, investors with long-held defensive positions will face pressure for rapid, forced unwinding, possibly resulting in a sudden surge in stock markets and a rapid fall in oil prices as expectations for the reopening of shipping channels become established.
Ceasefires and Tariff Suspensions: The Same Logic
According to CCTV News, citing Iranian sources in the early hours of the 8th local time, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has invited Iranian and US delegations to Islamabad for negotiations. Shehbaz Sharif also stated that the ceasefire between the US and Iran will take effect at 3:30 a.m. on the 8th Iran time (8 a.m. Beijing time). Trump stated that this ceasefire window will be used to "finalize and facilitate" the signing of a lasting peace agreement among all parties.
The Kobeissi Letter compares this two-week US-Iran ceasefire to the “90-day tariff suspension” announced by Trump in April 2025, considering the two highly similar in nature.
On April 9, 2025, against the backdrop of severe turbulence in the bond market, Trump announced a suspension of additional tariffs on most trading partners for 90 days. In the weeks following, the US-China trade agreement was swiftly concluded, and the market did not retest the previous lows. The Kobeissi Letter notes that this ceasefire announcement is nearly exactly one year apart from the above-mentioned tariff suspension.
The firm believes this pattern is not coincidental. Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has followed a very consistent negotiation logic across tariff battles, Venezuela, Greenland negotiations, and the Iran issue: verbal pressure, maximum pressure for concessions, and ultimately concluding with a "deal."
Ninth Step: Building the Agreement Narrative
According to the 10-step “conflict script” summarized by The Kobeissi Letter, the core of the ninth step is reaching the agreement and constructing the narrative framework.
The firm points out that every major confrontation within the Trump framework ends with a narrative of "maximum pressure in exchange for concessions." Whether it’s trade agreements with the EU or India, corporate negotiations in the Intel or rare earth sectors, or the many conflicts concluded by Trump in 2025, this pattern holds true.
On the Iran issue, The Kobeissi Letter believes that if the Iranian government does not collapse, the final agreement may involve a ceasefire arrangement tied to the nuclear issue, a regional security framework with enforcement mechanisms, or a sanctions adjustment plan based on compliance benchmarks. The firm emphasizes, "The importance of the specific architecture is far less than the timing and the narrative framework."
Tenth Step: Awaiting Violent Repricing
The Kobeissi Letter warns investors that market repricing after an agreement announcement is often sudden rather than gradual.
The reason is that current market participants are generally in defensive positions—with heavy energy exposure, compressed stock risk, and volatility remaining elevated due to latent uncertainty. Once uncertainty quickly dissipates, these positions will rapidly unwind, creating a concentrated market shock.
The firm cites historical cases from April, August, and October 2025, as well as January 2026, noting that after each tariff suspension or framework agreement announcement, there was a sharp surge in stocks and a rapid fall in oil prices as expectations for shipping lane reopenings were confirmed. The Kobeissi Letter concludes: “Pattern recognition in this market has extremely high profit value.”
Risk Disclaimer and Limitation of LiabilityThe market involves risk, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```