Trump’s airstrike on Khark Island targeted only military facilities, deliberately avoiding oil facilities. Why?
The United States launched precision strikes against Iran’s Khark Island but deliberately avoided the oil hub that accounts for ninety percent of Iran’s crude exports. What is behind this choice?
According to Xinhua News Agency, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency on the 14th, during air raids on Khark Island, more than 15 explosions occurred. The enemy attempted to damage defensive structures, military bases, and helicopter hangars on the island, but the oil facilities remained unharmed.
On the evening of the 13th, US President Trump posted on social media stating that the US military heavily bombed Iran’s oil export hub Khark Island but refrained from destroying the oil infrastructure there. If Iran or any other country interferes with the free and safe passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz in any way, “I will immediately reconsider this decision”.
This statement was interpreted by the market as a deliberate “warning shot.” Due to heightened geopolitical risks, international oil prices broke $100 per barrel on Monday, with Brent crude closing at $104.
According to CNBC on Monday, the reason the US deliberately avoided the oil lifeline is because the integrity of the oil facilities is still a card the US has not yet played. Vandana Hari, founder of energy consultancy Vanda Insights, stated that the strike against military facilities was meant to send Tehran a warning signal—If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, the oil infrastructure on Khark Island will be the next target.
Ninety percent of exports tied to one island; cost of strikes too high
Khark Island is the key hub for Iran’s crude exports. Its strategic value means any attack on its oil facilities would trigger an uncontrollable chain reaction.
This coral island, located in the northern Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers from Iran’s coast, covers only a few square kilometers, yet handles around 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with a daily loading capacity of 7 million barrels. The facilities are highly concentrated: the south is densely packed with storage tanks, long piers on both sides extend into deep water for supertankers to dock, and underwater pipelines connect directly to several major Iranian oil fields.
Richard Nephew, former Iranian deputy envoy and current research fellow at Columbia University’s Global Center for Energy Policy, stated that without Khark Island, Iran’s economy would face serious structural challenges.
This would also lead to a severe supply gap in the global crude market. According to JPMorgan data, if the island’s export terminal is directly attacked, Iran’s daily crude exports of about 1.5 million barrels would be immediately interrupted.
Therefore, analysts believe the US’s current actions are aimed at avoiding uncontrollable turmoil in the international energy market. While trying to put pressure on Iran, all sides are striving to avoid triggering irreversible market shocks.
Analysts point out that maintaining global oil prices within a controllable range also aligns with US economic and political interests.
In other words, oil prices can rise, but not spiral out of control.
Iran has certain countermeasures; regional conflict escalation risks need caution
Despite Khark Island’s crucial role, Iran has already diversified its infrastructure to enhance the resilience of its energy export network, but strikes on the island would still trigger severe regional chain reactions.
Andy Lipow, President of Lipow Oil Associates, pointed out that Iran has the Goreh to Jask pipeline, which bypasses Khark Island and the Strait of Hormuz, with a daily capacity of about 1.5 million barrels. Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer at Bison Interests, said Iran has other ports, but if the US controls or destroys Khark Island, applying similar pressure to other export facilities is not impossible.
Still, analysts warn that an actual strike on Khark Island’s oil facilities would constitute a major escalation. Edward Fishman, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated that Tehran has corresponding countermeasures. If core facilities are attacked, it may take reciprocal measures, and other key energy infrastructure in the region could also be affected, pushing conflict intensity to a new level.
The energy supply chain is being permanently repriced
Even though Khark Island’s oil facilities have not been affected so far, this conflict is structurally reshaping the risk pricing logic in the global energy market.
Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer for Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group and former head of Goldman Sachs commodity business, pointed out in a research report that damaged infrastructure on Khark Island cannot be repaired under shelling, and “war risk insurance premium will remain at a high level for a long time after the last missile is launched.” He further warned that stockpiling, contract renegotiations, and competition for alternative suppliers will permanently reprice the entire supply chain.
Currie believes the world is entering a new energy paradigm—security risks will be embedded into commodity prices. “Every commodity that must pass through chokepoints will carry a security premium long-term.”
This means that, for the oil market, the threat of a strike on Khark Island is nearly as impactful as the actual strike itself. An energy sector executive told the media that what’s really worrisome is that the trend of making core energy hubs a focus of geopolitical maneuvering may pose serious challenges to the long-term stability of the global energy system: ‘Once the taboo against hitting civilian energy facilities is broken, all limits may be removed.’
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