Trump's "exaggeration": Iran "allowed 20 Pakistani ships to pass," but Pakistan only has 13 ships in total.

Trump loudly claimed over the weekend that Iran had allowed 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but this claim was quickly questioned by shipping industry analysts. According to industry data, there are only 13 eligible large oceangoing vessels registered in Pakistan worldwide.

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump said on the 29th that Iran last week allowed 10 oil tankers flying the Pakistani flag to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and that the number has now increased to 20. He told the Financial Times, "These tankers have already sailed and are heading straight through the center of the strait."

Trump saw this as a sign of "smooth progress" in U.S.-Iran negotiations, and Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar called this move a "harbinger of peace." However, media shipping analysts raised objections to the claim on Monday, pointing out that the number of vessels cited by Trump clearly lacks evidence.

This has raised doubts in the market about whether the situation in the Strait of Hormuz can be substantially eased. Brent crude benchmark prices climbed to $116 per barrel on Monday. High oil prices continue to threaten the U.S. inflation outlook and add uncertainty to the upcoming midterm elections.

Data refutes: 13 vessels vs. 20 vessels

According to media reports citing Lloyd's List Intelligence data, there are only 13 large oceangoing vessels worldwide flying the Pakistani flag and with a tonnage of more than 10,000 deadweight tons—8 of them are oil tankers, 5 are bulk carriers. The 20-vessel figure Trump cited exceeds the entire scale of the Pakistani fleet of large oceangoing ships.

More importantly, among these 13 ships, none are currently stranded in the Middle East Gulf; only 3 are on the opposite side of the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman.

In the past two weeks, only two Pakistani-flagged vessels are known to have passed through the Strait of Hormuz: one oil tanker crossed on March 15, and one bulk carrier passed through last Saturday. In addition, a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker chartered by Pakistan National Shipping Company also crossed on the same day.

"Trump is just creating headlines and attracting attention," said one shipbroker. Another analyst who spent a whole day trying to make sense of Trump’s comments bluntly stated, "It’s simply absurd."

White House response: Experts repeatedly proven wrong

Facing outside doubts, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly defended Trump, stating that so-called "experts" have been proven wrong by the president many times in the past, including predictions about the Israel-Gaza ceasefire and tariff policy impacts. "The president has repeatedly proven them wrong, and he is confident the Strait of Hormuz will fully reopen soon," Kelly said.

Ishaq Dar hinted over the weekend that two Pakistani-flagged vessels may start passing through the Strait of Hormuz every day. According to three diplomats and industry insiders involved in the discussions, some ships have begun considering re-registering under the Pakistani flag, but even so, the scale of 20 vessels claimed by Trump is "impossible in the short term."

"Shipowners may switch flags, but what’s the advantage after this voyage? This is not a long-term strategy," said one senior shipping executive. "The simpler explanation is that the president is talking nonsense."

Strait passage: Partial easing, far from normal

Trump stated on Sunday that it was the Speaker of Iran’s Islamic Parliament who approved allowing more ships to pass. However, Ghalibaf himself had already mocked Trump on social media X last Friday for trying to manipulate the energy market.

"They spread a lot of fake news to try to bring down energy prices, but the market is numb," Ghalibaf wrote. "Go ahead, nobody believes it anymore. The real price will eventually be reflected."

Although Trump’s claims are questionable, the passage situation in the Strait of Hormuz has indeed shown signs of partial, limited easing. Over the past two weeks, Iran allowed a small number of vessels to pass via a special route near Larak Island, including ships from India, Greece, Iran's own oil fleet, and the Pakistani-flagged tanker "Karachi."

However, analysts pointed out that the recent flow of ships through the strait has mostly been “one-way outbound,” mainly limited to ships with trade relations or close diplomatic ties with Iran. “To normalize the oil market, there must be vessels entering and leaving daily,” said the aforementioned shipbroker. Since Iran began targeting ships and port infrastructure in the Gulf region, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt.

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