Trump's plan to bomb Khark Island: oil prices could surge to $200 next week, leaving a window for price suppression ahead of the midterm elections?

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The US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Khark Island. According to veteran Wall Street macro strategist Jim Bianco, this action is not reckless, but rather a strategic gamble driven by both time and economic pressure, leaving “no other choice.”

According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of the 13th, stating that the US military had launched a “fierce airstrike” against military targets on Iran’s oil export hub, Khark Island.

Bianco analyzes that US government and military planners believe reopening the Strait of Hormuz by conventional military means could take weeks or even months, and during that period, uncontrolled rises in oil prices could suffocate the global economy. This judgment prompted Washington to choose direct strikes on Khark Island’s military facilities to send a strong signal to Iran.

Bianco characterizes this action as a “Hail Mary pass”—borrowing from football terminology, meaning a risky long throw in the final moments of a game. The core logic is: the global oil market and world economy simply cannot endure weeks to months of uncertainty, so a high-intensity immediate action is necessary to force Iran’s quick compliance.

Within Bianco’s framework, political timing is equally important. He suggests that this calculation may exist among political advisors—if oil prices are destined to soar to $200 without intervention, then it’s preferable to let this happen next week, so there would be roughly a six-month window for prices to fall back before the US midterm elections.

Bianco explicitly opposes the path of “declaring victory and withdrawing” (TACO), and believes this is actually a worse choice than maintaining current operations. His reasoning points directly to structural risks: If the US withdraws without resolving the Strait of Hormuz issue, Iran would effectively gain enduring control over the global energy lifeline, thus having the ability to punish the world economy with long-term oil prices of $200 per barrel.

It is noteworthy that, according to reports, the strike deliberately avoided the island’s oil infrastructure, while Trump explicitly warned that if Iran does not open the strait for passage, the oil facilities would be the next target. The news was released on Friday night local time. Bianco notes that the timing was deliberately chosen to provide the market with about a 48-hour buffer to digest the information, avoiding immediate panic fluctuations in the oil market.

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