Trump's speech showed "no clear signal of cooling down," which left the market "very disappointed."
On the morning of April 2, Beijing time, US President Trump delivered a televised national address regarding the Iran conflict. The market originally expected him to signal de-escalation, but instead received new threats.
In his speech, Trump claimed a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the Iran conflict, while making it clear that "in the next two to three weeks, we will launch extremely fierce attacks against them," and issued a final ultimatum: "If there is no deal, we will fiercely attack every power plant in Iran." He did not give an answer regarding when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.
Oil prices gave the market’s first reaction: Brent crude at one point breached $105 per barrel, with a daily gain of 4%. Asia-Pacific stock markets came under broad pressure: the Nikkei 225 index’s loss widened to 1.1%, Korea’s Kospi fell by 2.1%, and the S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.6%.
Nick Twidale, Chief Market Analyst at AT Global Markets, said, "Investors are clearly not buying it; global markets may have further downside today." "Despite saying the war is about to end, the key message—that Iran will still be attacked in the coming weeks—is extremely negative for the market."
Institutional Analysis: Pressure Tactics, Not Cooling
Numerous institutions quickly made judgments after the speech, with core conclusions highly consistent: this is not the signal the market wanted.
After Trump’s speech, the market seems more focused on the view that the Iran war is not over.
Robert Subbaraman, Head of Global Market Research at Nomura Securities, said Trump’s speech "did not provide the clear signal of cooling tensions that the market wanted." He pointed out that in the foreign exchange market, Asian currencies against the US dollar may weaken, and if volatility is too fast, central banks may increase intervention; this could also put upward pressure on government bond yields. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% after the speech.
Rodrigo Catril, strategist at National Australia Bank (NAB) in Sydney, believed, "The market seems to focus on the idea that the war is not over." He said, "The US is seeking to escalate the situation in hopes of forcing Iran to reach a deal, but this tactic is not without risks—we need to closely watch oil prices."
Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone Group, bluntly stated that Trump’s speech was "indeed disappointing." She pointed out that Trump’s earlier remarks about withdrawing from the Middle East "now seem more like market appeasement while retaining pressure options," "He clearly still prefers a strategy of applying pressure first and then de-escalating, rather than simply and directly cooling tensions."
Missing Ceasefire Details, Nothing New
Due to the lack of substantive details to resolve the core supply chain crisis in the speech, market concerns are increasing.
Senior Bloomberg editor Derek Wallbank commented: "If you’ve been listening to the President’s statements for the past week, there isn’t much new tonight."
He pointed out that Trump made no mention of the fact that Iran currently effectively controls traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Such a situation, granting Iran “de facto veto power,” is unacceptable to many Gulf states. Additionally, according to US officials, a third American aircraft carrier strike group left Virginia for the Middle East on Tuesday, indicating military buildup continues.
Columnist Clara Ferreira Marques said Trump provided no new details or lasting solutions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, instead urging other countries to find the "belated courage" to solve the problem, an attitude that "will unsettle the crude oil market."
From a longer-term investment perspective, the market is now pricing in "energy disruption" as part of its long-term valuation. Analyst Abhishek Vishnoi pointed out that Trump’s remarks calling for other countries to handle security in the Strait of Hormuz themselves increased the likelihood of a persistent risk premium in the crude oil market.
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