Two consecutive years of growth! South Korea's number of newborns increased by 6.8% year-on-year last year, marking the largest increase in fifteen years.

Two consecutive years of growth! South Korea's number of newborns increased by 6.8% year-on-year last year, marking the largest increase in fifteen years.

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South Korea's number of newborns is expected to rise for a second consecutive year in 2025, with the total fertility rate returning to the 0.8 range, offering a rare positive signal for an economy long troubled by "ultra-low fertility," though the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain.

On February 25, the South Korean government released data showing that the number of newborns in 2025 will reach 254,500, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year, with a rise of about 16,100. Preliminary statistics from Korea's data and statistics departments also show that this is the largest annual increase in 15 years.

The driving factors behind the rebound are more related to changes in population structure and marriage patterns. Government analysis points out that the increase in marriage registrations and the continued rise in the population of women aged 34 and under, who are in their prime childbearing years since 2021, are key backgrounds for the growth in newborn numbers.

However, in terms of overall numbers, population pressure has not been alleviated. In 2025, the number of deaths will still exceed births by 108,900, indicating continued population contraction.

Demographers also warn that this round of "population dividend"-style support may weaken starting in 2027, and market expectations for long-term labor force and potential growth need to be repriced between short-term rebound and long-term structural constraints.

Birth numbers rebound, fertility rate returns to 0.8

Korean government data shows that there will be 254,500 newborns in 2025, up 6.8% year-on-year. The total fertility rate will be 0.8, up 0.05 year-on-year, and this is the first return to 0.8 since 2021.

On a global comparison dimension, South Korea remains the only OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) country with a total fertility rate below 1.0. Even as births rebound, the pattern of natural population decline is not reversed.

Additionally, South Korea said the final confirmed data will be released in August.

Core drivers of the rebound: increase in women of childbearing age and warming fertility intentions

The South Korean government attributes the increase in births mainly to the rise in marriage registrations and women of childbearing age. Demographers further attribute this to the "echo boomers" effect, that is, the "temporarily enlarged generation" of about 3.6 million born between 1991 and 1995 entering their peak childbearing period.

Correspondingly, according to Korean statistical definitions, in 2025 about 1.7 million women in their early thirties, an increase of 9% compared to 2020, and this age group usually corresponds to a higher probability of childbirth.

Improvements on the marriage side are also being transmitted to the birth side. As marriage arrangements postponed during the pandemic are gradually released, the number of babies born within two years after marriage has increased by 10.2%. Korean government survey data shows the proportion of respondents intending to have children after marriage rose by 3.1% between 2022 and 2024.

Government continues large-scale investment, policy effect hard to quantify

Regarding the causal relationship between the fertility rebound and policies, Park Hyun-jung, director of the population trends department of Korea's data and statistics bureau, said that it is not possible to clearly analyze the correlation, but mentioned that young people may be affected by policies aimed at "eliminating penalties for marriage and childbirth."

South Korea has invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the past two decades to promote pro-birth measures, including cash subsidies, housing subsidies, extended parental leave and childcare support. Some companies have launched stronger incentives, with some offering up to 100 million won for each child born.

These policies and enterprise incentives may affect the marginal cost of marriage and childbearing decisions in the short term, and also mean that the sustainability of related fiscal and enterprise costs will be incorporated into the evaluation framework by investors.

Structural constraints remain: cost pressures and shrinking childcare infrastructure

Several experts pointed out that the high housing costs, rising private education expenditures, stigmatization of parental status in the workplace, and stagnant youth employment all form structural barriers to further increases in fertility, with limited counteractive policy effect.

The contraction on the supply side is also worth noting. Pediatric clinics are closing faster than new ones are opening, and some local governments lack sufficient delivery facilities, reflecting systemic consequences from years of ultra-low births. Even if demand temporarily rebounds, the capacity of related medical and childcare infrastructure may still become a real constraint.

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