Two weeks remain until the United States' "250th anniversary," so how will Trump set off fireworks in the market?
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On July 4 this year, the United States will celebrate its 250th anniversary of founding. This historic milestone is becoming an important observation window for the market—analysts believe that Trump is highly likely to intensively release positive signals at this opportunity, pushing the stock market to hit historic highs around the commemorative date.
On June 22, Academy Securities strategist Peter Tchir pointed out that Trump's current polling support rate is at a low level, and as the Iran situation eases, his attention is expected to quickly turn to domestic economic issues.
Recently, Trump posted on the social platform "Truth Social", linking Apple with Intel, which has been regarded externally as a typical "presidential endorsement-style rally" operation. Tchir believes that within the two-week window left before the 250th anniversary, similar policy statements and market calls may become the norm.
Meanwhile, the interest rate environment is also seeing active changes. The performance of new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh at his first FOMC meeting exceeded expectations, effectively compressed the tail risk of long-term rates, and the bond market volatility indicator MOVE index subsequently fell back to levels seen prior to the escalation of the Iran situation.
Academy Securities has adjusted its rate stance from bearish to neutral. Multiple factors are overlapping, providing a relatively favorable macro backdrop for Trump to "ignite market fireworks" before Independence Day.
Polling Pressure—Trump Has Strong Motivation to Boost the Market
According to comprehensive polling data from Real Clear Politics, Trump's current support rate is near or at the lowest point since he took office. Tchir points out that this context is crucial—Trump has always relished "winning", and prefers to display victory in a grand and obvious manner.
The 250th anniversary is a genuine historic milestone with high symbolic significance. Academy Securities analysis points out that Trump has a strong "winning" motivation and attaches great importance to the political legacy of this 250th anniversary Independence Day.
To present a "grand and perfect" celebration, the White House has a very high willingness to use all available resources in the short term to embellish economic data.
In the next two weeks, the President is expected to intensively boost market sentiment through public statements, with the core aim of driving the U.S. stock market to hit a historic high during Independence Day, thereby directly lifting his polling numbers.
On the Iran issue, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU), but Tchir characterizes it as a "fragile ceasefire" or a "band-aid solution"—its main function is to maintain stable oil supply while buying time for all parties to assess the situation.
As this geopolitical risk temporarily cools, Trump's policy focus is expected to shift significantly toward domestic economic issues.
Intel Becomes a "Presidential Endorsement" Sample
Tchir particularly singled out Intel, regarding it as a typical case for understanding Trump's market operation logic. He previously wrote a whole paragraph on Intel in the ProSec 2026 report; the core logic is:
"It's hard to imagine the government won't try to protect taxpayers' investments in this company."
Last Thursday, Trump posted on Truth Social, linking Apple and Intel's cooperation. Although neither company has formally confirmed the details, Tchir interprets this move as a signal: in the critical window before Independence Day, the President may continue to endorse specific companies or industries in similar ways.
In addition, the global trend toward protection and security (ProSec) industries is accelerating—Europe and Canada are gradually moving in this direction, and companies in these fields are expected to receive further policy favor from Washington.
Warsh Debut Compresses Rate Tail Risks; Stance Turns Neutral
On the rate front, Academy Securities has adjusted its previous bearish stance to neutral, with the direct trigger being the new Fed Chairman Warsh's performance at his first FOMC meeting.
Tchir believes Warsh handled it well at the meeting: on one hand, he explicitly blamed inflation on previous Fed policy decisions, hawkishly kept long-term yields steady; on the other hand, he announced the establishment of several working groups, and the "data source working group" particularly caught Tchir's attention.
Tchir has long held a critical view of the quality of official U.S. economic data, noting that non-farm employment data relies on questionnaires, household survey errors used in calculating unemployment rate are too large, and CPI's "owner's equivalent rent" is significantly lagged—all of which lead to a "garbage in, garbage out" decision dilemma.
He believes Warsh's push for data reform is the correct direction, but it will be difficult to achieve quickly in the short term.
On bond market volatility, the MOVE index drastically dropped last Thursday, returning to levels seen prior to the escalation of the Iran situation. Tchir thinks this drop is mainly attributed to Warsh's statement, rather than the MOU signed with Iran.
Overall, Tchir's core judgment is: the outlook for rates has clearly improved compared to the past few months, geopolitical risks have temporarily cooled, and Trump has strong political motivation to drive the stock market higher ahead of the 250th anniversary Independence Day. Tchir wrote:
"I believe the President will make a series of statements and remarks in the coming days; it is almost certain he wants to have the stock market at historic highs and better polling numbers as the U.S. celebrates its 250th anniversary."
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