U.S. and Iran near agreement, SpaceX completes IPO; heated debate in the crypto community: Is the bottom in?
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Bitcoin rebounded from below $60,000, reigniting speculation in the market that "the bottom has appeared." Bulls and bears are fiercely debating around ETF fund outflows, on-chain data, and macro catalysts, but analysts warn that the market has not yet shown the total panic selling seen at past bear market bottoms.
After hitting a low of $59,100 last week, Bitcoin rebounded this week, briefly surpassing $64,000 on Friday before pulling back, remaining largely unchanged from Thursday’s New York close, and rising over 4.6% as of press time.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Standard Chartered's Digital Asset Research, stated in a client report:
I believe the price low for crypto assets in this cycle has already appeared.
He listed easing geopolitical tensions and completion of the SpaceX IPO as two major potential catalysts.
However, the market is far from showing comprehensive signs of recovery.
Data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of about $5.8 billion over the past month, with institutional demand remaining weak. CryptoQuant researchers note that the current price level "should be interpreted as a candidate for the valuation bottom, rather than a confirmed cyclical low."
Rebound Triggers Bottom Debate, Geopolitics and IPO Become Bull Arguments
Bitcoin dropped to a low of $59,100 last week, then rebounded to the current level of around $63,600. This drop has caused pessimism in the market and has prompted analysts to intensively search for technical signals that historically accompany market bottoms.
Kendrick wrote in the client report that easing geopolitical tensions could reduce upward pressure on oil prices and US Treasury yields.
Meanwhile, completion of the SpaceX IPO may mark the end of a recent wave of intensive ETF selling.
He believes that some ETF holders cashed out Bitcoin positions ahead of the SpaceX IPO to participate, which objectively accelerated fund outflow, resulting in one of the most severe net outflows since these ETF products listed.
On-Chain Data Shows Bottom Signals, Threshold Not Fully Reached
Several on-chain indicators are approaching critical ranges seen at historical bear market lows, providing support for the bulls’ arguments.
According to CryptoQuant data, after this Bitcoin drop, its price is only about 9% higher than the "realized price" (the average cost of all circulating coins’ last movement on-chain).
Historically, this indicator often approaches realized price near major bear market lows; the current level is in a historically sensitive region.
Vetle Lunde points to another indicator: more than half of the circulating Bitcoin positions are currently at a loss, meaning holders’ purchase costs are higher than the current market price.
This phenomenon has repeatedly appeared near previous market bottoms, with the logic being that the group of investors who are still in profit and facing selling pressure has sharply narrowed.
However, Lunde also cautiously notes that before a sustained recovery is confirmed, Bitcoin may still experience a "final dip."
ETF Continues to Bleed, Institutional Demand Biggest Hidden Danger
Nonetheless, compared to typical deep collapses in cryptocurrency markets in the past, the scale of this round of selling remains insufficient.
According to CryptoQuant data, about 187,000 Bitcoins were sold at a loss in the past 30 days—substantial but far less than the scale seen after the late 2022 FTX crash, and even less than an earlier concentrated sell-off this year.
Bloomberg compiled data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of about $5.8 billion over the past month. CryptoQuant points out that not only has US institutional demand stalled, but it has turned to net selling at an unprecedented speed in history.
This phenomenon itself has triggered sharply opposing interpretations between bulls and bears.
Bears argue that continuous fund outflows indicate deteriorating demand, making it hard for prices to form effective support; bulls claim that such large-scale outflows are a classic feature of market purges that historically accompany the formation of bottoms.
CryptoQuant researchers' conclusion is quite representative:
The current price should be seen as a candidate for the valuation bottom, rather than a confirmed cyclical bottom.
This phrasing accurately captures the core market divide—technical signals are accumulating, but weak demand and ongoing ETF fund outflows make any definitive judgement highly risky.
Risk warning and disclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investment based on this article is at your own risk. ```