U.S. "blockade" approaches, oil prices surge past $100, gold plummets, U.S. stock futures fall

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The US-Iran peace talks failed over the weekend, and Trump immediately announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, global markets experienced intense turbulence, the energy supply shock escalated comprehensively, oil and gas prices surged, and inflation expectations reignited; risk assets came under pressure, US stock futures fell, Japanese and Korean stock markets opened lower, cryptocurrency retreated; the strong dollar suppressed gold.

According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump posted two messages on social media on April 12, claiming that the US-Iran talks were “progressing well, with consensus reached on most issues,” but failed to agree on the key nuclear issue. Trump declared that, starting immediately, the US military would “begin a blockade on all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz.”

The Nikkei 225 index opened down 0.9%, Korea's Seoul Composite Index opened down 2.1%.

US stock futures fell, Dow and S&P 500 futures each dropped about 1.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.3%.

In oil, Brent crude jumped 8.4% to $103.21 per barrel, WTI crude rose 8.9% to $105.12 per barrel, both returning above $100.

European natural gas benchmark Dutch TTF futures once soared 18% to 51.30 euros/MWh.

Gold moved against the trend, spot gold fell more than 2% to near $4,669/oz, erasing all gains from last week.

The dollar strengthened, Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%. Bitcoin fell about 3%, dropping below $71,000.

Negotiation Breakdown Triggers Escalation

The US and Iran failed to reach any agreement after marathon talks lasting 21 hours in Islamabad, Pakistan. Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency stated that US conditions were “too harsh.” US Vice President Vance said Washington's core demand was for Iran to commit to abandon nuclear weapons development, but he returned to Washington without achieving this goal. Trump then wrote on social media that, after the talks, “only one thing is clear—Iran is unwilling to abandon its nuclear ambitions.”

This breakdown subjects the fragile ceasefire agreement established last week to a severe test. Last week, the announcement of the ceasefire pushed the S&P 500 index up 3.6%, and the MSCI Emerging Market Equity Index surged 7.4%. On Sunday, two ships attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but after the Islamabad talks collapsed, both ships turned back.

Energy Markets Hit, Inflation Pressure Rises Again

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point for global energy transportation; about one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas passed through there before the war. Since late February when the US and Israel attacked Iran, the waterway has effectively been paralyzed, with Iran continuously charging “passage fees” to some ships, reducing throughput to only a small fraction of pre-war levels.

Imposing the blockade means Iran’s daily export of nearly 2 million barrels of oil will be completely cut off, further tightening global supply. Global refiners and traders are now scrambling to buy immediately available spot crude oil. European natural gas has risen more than 50% since the conflict broke out, though it has fallen about one-third from the intraday highs on March 19—when Iran attacked Qatar’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility in the world, sparking a huge spike in natural gas futures.

According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), as of Sunday, the US national average gasoline price had reached $4.125 per gallon. Iranian Parliamentary Speaker MB Ghalibaf posted on X sarcastically: “Enjoy the current oil prices. Once the so-called ‘blockade’ is implemented, you’ll soon miss the days of $4 to $5 a gallon.” US March inflation data already showed pressure: The month-on-month increase in CPI was the largest in nearly four years, with the record rise in gasoline prices accounting for almost three-quarters of the monthly increase.

Market Sentiment Under Pressure, Analysts Diverge

In the view of market strategy analysts, the announcement of the blockade will pose clear pressure on risk assets in the near term. Stuart Kaiser, US Equity Trading Strategy Director at Citigroup, wrote in Sunday’s report: “The failure of the Iran talks, and Trump’s plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—this nonviolent escalation leaves room for further negotiation, but may push oil prices higher in the near term.”

Evercore ISI's Sunday client report pointed out that the blockade may “drag down markets in the short term, as potential face-offs between the US Navy and Iran-associated ships could trigger conflict and end the fragile ceasefire.” However, the firm also believes that Trump hopes to avoid returning to full conflict, and that this escalation is “ultimately aimed at promoting further dialogue.”

Bloomberg MLIV team leader Garfield Reynolds observed that the return of WTI and Brent crude contracts far above $100 will break the narrative that market assets can return to pre-war levels. The market had previously believed that the US-Iran talks had paved a path to resolve the unprecedented supply shock threatening the global economy. Elias Haddad, Global Market Strategy Director at Brown Brothers Harriman, said Trump’s announcement of the maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “is certain to reignite market risk-aversion this week.”

US Earnings Season Opens, Corporate Outlook in Focus

The market is facing another crucial timing: US first-quarter earnings season is about to begin, with Goldman Sachs reporting results first on Monday. Analysts forecast the S&P 500’s component stocks will see year-on-year earnings growth of about 12%, the lowest rate since Q2 2025.

Investors hope to gain more information from corporate management in order to assess the potential impact of soaring oil prices and rising inflation on consumer demand. Data released last Friday showed US consumer confidence dropped sharply, and concerns are mounting about rising energy costs eroding corporate earnings and household consumption.

Regarding last week’s market performance, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all recorded weekly gains. As of last Friday, the S&P 500 index has risen 4.4% since April, but for 2026 year-to-date it still shows a slight decline, after a sharp drop in March.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risk, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article fit their specific situation. Responsibility for investment decisions lies with the individual. ```