U.S. fertility rate hits a historic low of 1.57 in 2025—why?

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U.S. fertility rates will hit a new historic low in 2025, with structural demographic pressures continuing to intensify.

According to the latest predictions from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the general fertility rate in the U.S. in 2025 will drop to 53.1 newborns per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44—the lowest level on record. Additionally, calculations from The Wall Street Journal based on CDC data show that the total fertility rate that year will be 1.57 children per woman, also a historic low and well below the replacement benchmark of 2.1 necessary for natural population renewal.

This means the space for the U.S. to achieve population growth through natural births is rapidly shrinking. Predictions from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Congressional Budget Office both indicate that the small surplus of births over deaths will vanish within the next decade, and population growth will rely entirely on net immigration.

Several demographers point out that economic uncertainty, concerns about relationship stability, and changes in the political environment are the main drivers of women postponing childbirth, rather than a fundamental loss of willingness to have children.

Delayed Childbearing Becomes the Main Trend

The core structural change driving the drop in fertility rates lies in the continued postponement of childbearing by women of reproductive age. In 2025, the birth rate for women in their late 30s will surpass that of women in their early 20s for the first time, marking a historic turning point in American fertility patterns.

The continued decline in teen birth rates is another notable feature. In 2025, the birth rate among women aged 15 to 19 will decrease by 7% year-on-year, with declines of 11% in the 15–17 age group and 7% in the 18–19 age group. Since 2007, the birth rate for this age range has fallen 72% cumulatively, closely related to decades of public health campaigns against teen pregnancy and the widespread adoption of effective contraceptive methods.

Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, noted that the U.S. once had a much higher teen birth rate than other developed countries in the 1980s and 1990s, and decades of strengthened public health policies against early childbearing have greatly contributed to the sharp decline in this group's birth rate.

Economic and Social Uncertainty Suppresses Fertility Intentions

Even though fertility rates keep falling, research shows many women still intend to have children, but real-world uncertainty prompts them to delay.

Wendy Manning, demographer at Bowling Green State University and co-director of the National Center for Family & Marriage Research, said, the lackluster growth in birth numbers is driven by widespread concerns for the future, covering financial conditions, relationship stability, and the political environment. She stated:

"People are waiting for a more suitable time before becoming parents, hoping their lives are already on track beforehand. This kind of uncertainty may not be a good thing for society overall."

Narrowing Birth Surplus, Population Growth Dependent on Immigration

From a macro demographic perspective, the foundation for U.S. population growth is becoming fragile.

In 2025, U.S. births will exceed deaths by only about 500,000, and this surplus is shrinking as population aging accelerates. Both the Census Bureau and Congressional Budget Office predict this birth surplus will reach zero within the next decade. Once natural growth disappears, immigration will become the only source to maintain population size, with far-reaching effects on labor supply, the sustainability of the social security system, and long-term economic growth potential.

It is noteworthy that the decline in U.S. fertility rates is consistent with global trends, though still higher than many developed countries. The United Nations' latest estimate shows the global total fertility rate continued to decline in 2023, with more than half of countries now falling below the replacement level.

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