U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 last week, one of the lowest levels since 1969.

The US labor market has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Latest data shows that initial jobless claims remain near historical lows, and layoffs are still rare. However, the uneven distribution of hiring has left some workers in a dilemma.

Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 197,000 in the week ending September 19, the lowest level since July and one of the lowest readings since 1969. Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger stated that the extremely low level of initial jobless claims in mid-September indicates a stable labor market, and there are currently no signs of high interest rates driving layoffs.

Following the release of the data, market concerns about the US job market eased further. Overall, the structural characteristics of the current labor market are becoming increasingly clear—layoffs continue to be suppressed, while hiring momentum remains uneven, creating a stark contrast.

Initial jobless claims hit a recent low, and the four-week moving average also declined.

Labor Department data shows that the figure of 197,000 is in the extremely low range on a historical timeframe. The four-week moving average, which measures the volatility of new applications, fell to 202,250, a six-week low, further confirming that the recent downward trend in applications is not a one-week fluctuation.

The raw, unadjusted data shows the opposite trend, with initial jobless claims rising, primarily driven by increases in California, Hawaii, and New York.

The number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits (a measure of the size of the group still receiving benefits) was essentially unchanged in the week ending September 12, at around 1.72 million, close to the lowest level since 2023.

Layoffs are rare, but hiring is uneven.

Eliza Winger points out that the few industries currently experiencing layoffs are primarily motivated by efficiency improvements rather than the transmission of macroeconomic pressures, and the impact of high interest rates on the job market has not yet manifested in interest rate-sensitive industries.

However, a stable job market does not equate to a full recovery. Over the past few months, businesses have generally been cautious about laying off employees, keeping initial jobless claims near historical lows. Meanwhile, hiring activity has been mixed, offering limited options for job seekers still observing the market and for those dissatisfied with their current jobs but lacking alternative opportunities.

This structural divergence means that beneath the surface calm of the labor market, the employment mobility pressures faced by some groups have not yet been effectively alleviated.

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