U.S. intelligence agencies assess that the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to be "opened up" in the short term.

Recent U.S. intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz in the short term.

According to Xinhua News Agency, the latest assessments by the U.S. intelligence community suggest that Iran considers the Strait of Hormuz an important "bargaining chip" against the U.S. and is unlikely to loosen its grip on this vital energy shipping route in the near future.

Analysts believe the U.S. is currently facing multiple dilemmas: on the one hand, Iran, leveraging its unique geographical advantage, controls the Strait of Hormuz, making it difficult for the U.S. to "force open" the waterway by military means; on the other hand, Iran will continue to use the strait as negotiation leverage, making America’s negotiating prospects challenging.

Since the U.S. and Iran launched their war against Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz has in effect been blocked. This strait carries about one-fifth of global oil trade; the blockade directly pushed international oil prices to multi-year highs and led to fuel shortages in countries dependent on Gulf oil and gas.

Rising energy prices are increasing inflationary pressure in the U.S., posing a political risk for Trump—Republicans are facing midterm elections in November, and Trump’s poll numbers are already quite poor.

Hormuz—Iran’s Core Bargaining Chip

The core logic of the intelligence assessment is: blocking the strait gives Iran unprecedented leverage in negotiations.

According to media citing sources, Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, directly pointed this out: "In trying to stop Iran from developing weapons of mass destruction, the U.S. has instead given Iran a weapon of mass disruption."

He further stated that Tehran is well aware that the ability to control the Strait and thus influence global energy markets is "far more powerful than nuclear weapons."

A source cited intelligence reports saying: "Once Iran has tasted the power and bargaining chip of controlling the strait, it will not easily let go."

Former CIA Director Bill Burns said on the Foreign Affairs magazine podcast that Iran will use its control over the strait to seek "long-term deterrence and security guarantees" in peace negotiations with the U.S., while also seeking "direct material gains"—such as charging tolls for commercial vessels. "This," he said, "makes the current negotiations extremely tricky."

Some experts also point out that even if the war ends, Iran is unlikely to relinquish control over the strait’s passage rights, as collecting tolls will be an important source of funds for its reconstruction.

Military Force Opening: Risks Far Exceed Expectations

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump posted on social media: "Just give us a little more time, and we can easily open the Strait of Hormuz, seize the oil, and make a fortune." This may hint at ordering the U.S. military to forcibly open the strait.

But experts generally warn that the cost of using force is extremely high.

The Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles (about 33 kilometers) wide at its narrowest point, and each direction of shipping lanes is just 2 miles (about 3 kilometers) wide. Ships and troops are extremely easy targets for attacks.

More importantly, even if the U.S. military occupies Iran’s southern coast and islands, Iran can still launch drones and missiles from deep inside its territory, continuously threatening passing ships. Ali Vaez said: "Just one or two drones are enough to disrupt traffic and scare off ships."

Trump’s Contradictory Position

At the policy level, there is a clear contradiction in Trump’s statements. On one hand, he lists opening the strait as a precondition for a cease-fire; on the other, he urges countries reliant on Gulf oil and NATO allies to take the lead in resolving the issue.

A White House official, speaking anonymously, said Trump "believes the strait will be opened soon" and made it clear that Iran must not control passage rights after the war. But the official also pointed out that Trump believes other countries "have more interests at stake in preventing this situation than the U.S. does."

The conclusions of the intelligence assessment stand in sharp contrast to Trump’s optimistic statements, making market expectations for the quick normalization of traffic through the strait more cautious.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market has risks, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account specific investment goals, financial conditions, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular situation. Invest accordingly, at your own risk.