U.S. IPO market falls into "wartime stagnation": Is SpaceX's $75 billion listing the village's only hope?

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The US IPO market is facing dual shocks from the Iran war and the wave of artificial intelligence. Performance in the first quarter has been uneven, with many companies forced to shelve their listing plans. The market's attention has thus shifted to SpaceX's potential mega-IPO—a deal so large it could single-handedly carry the entire year's underwriting performance.

On March 31, according to Bloomberg, SpaceX is expected to submit a confidential application as soon as within a few days, aiming to raise up to $75 billion, with a possible listing as early as June this year. This potential milestone transaction has become Wall Street bankers’ top hope in a turbulent market.

The Iran war continues to intensify market volatility. US IPO activity in March fell to its lowest level in nearly a year. Bloomberg data shows that the weighted average decline of IPOs in the first quarter of 2026 was about 3%. Although this is better than the S&P 500's drop of over 7%, seven out of the ten largest IPOs still saw their prices fall below the issue price, with a median decline of 28%.

War and AI shocks narrow the IPO window

The Iran war has become the main source of uncertainty in the US IPO market. Evan Riley, head of Equities Capital Markets Americas at BNP Paribas, said, the Iran situation is causing disruption in the market, compounded by this year's disruptive effects in the AI sector. Several deals have already been withdrawn, and the overall landscape of the IPO market will change as a result.

In February this year, both Clear Street Group and Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile paused their IPO plans on the eve of pricing. Michal Katz, Head of Investment and Corporate Banking, Americas at Mizuho, bluntly stated, in the current climate of uncertainty, the IPO market will largely come to a standstill. She added that once both sides sit down at the negotiating table to begin constructing a solution framework, the market should gradually stabilize.

Katz emphasized that what investors are most concerned about is assessing all possible scenarios, especially trends in the energy market and oil prices—both closely tied to Iran’s geopolitical dynamics.

Bankers urge companies to seize the window

Despite a complex market environment, many bankers still advise IPO candidates not to wait indefinitely. John Kolz, Global Head of Equity Capital Markets at Barclays, said that issuers who paused a few weeks prior will likely face a similar environment at the beginning of April. "In today's chaotic circumstances, do you need to summon the courage to seek out long-term investors through a solid roadshow process?"

Rob Stowe, Head of Equity Capital Markets Americas at Barclays, also pointed out that the market expects that a resolution could come at any time, and everyone wants to be prepared. Bloomberg data shows that over the past 12 years, the second quarter has historically been the most active period for IPOs.

David Bauer, Head of Equity Capital Markets at JP Morgan, said that the forward-looking calendar still appears constructive, with healthy IPO pipelines in financials, industrial and technology sectors.

SpaceX could be the key to the year's success or failure

Against the backdrop of a pressured overall market, SpaceX's potential IPO is seen as a variable that could change the entire year's landscape. Evan Riley said that if a super-sized IPO goes through, the entire year's dynamics would change, as just one deal could easily account for the total annual IPO volume.

Meanwhile, some industrial companies have already started testing the market. Indoor air quality company Madison Air Solutions is seeking at least $2 billion in funding, and drone manufacturer Aevex Corp. has recently publicly filed for an IPO.

Bankers say other companies are being advised to stay ready at any time before financial data expires in mid-May. The market's performance in April will be decisive for IPO trends in the second quarter and even the whole year.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market carries risks, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ particular investment goals, financial situation, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```