U.S. photovoltaic stocks have already hit a "golden bottom"? Goldman Sachs: Super large-scale computing centers are rewriting the logic of power grid demand.

U.S. photovoltaic stocks have already hit a "golden bottom"? Goldman Sachs: Super large-scale computing centers are rewriting the logic of power grid demand.

Goldman Sachs' latest report points out that the photovoltaic sector is ushering in a structural investment window. Although the sector faced pressure in early 2025 due to policy expectation fluctuations, the current electricity demand surge driven by data centers is reshaping the growth logic of the U.S. power grid.

According to Wind Trading Desk, the report states that photovoltaic has become the core force in the transformation of the U.S. power structure, and is expected to account for approximately 54% of newly added power generation capacity in 2025. As electricity demand from data centers continues to grow beyond expectations, photovoltaic—being a clean energy source with dual advantages in cost and deployment speed—will directly benefit from this long-term demand momentum.

In terms of valuation, U.S. photovoltaic stocks are still significantly below their historical highs, and they are also clearly discounted compared to other electricity-themed sectors. Among them, listed companies focusing on utility-scale photovoltaics are particularly attractive in terms of allocation, providing investors with a lower-cost entry point to participate in the power structure transformation.

Data Center Revolution: A New Engine Driving Photovoltaic Demand Is Starting Up

Goldman's utilities team recently raised its growth forecast for U.S. electricity demand, increasing the annual compound growth rate from the previous 2.5% to 2.6%. This adjustment is mainly driven by the strong electricity demand from data centers. By 2030, it is expected that data centers overall will contribute about 120 basis points to growth, with AI data centers accounting for 70 basis points.

According to the report's estimates, to meet future electricity needs of data centers, the U.S. is projected to require about 82 GW of newly added power generation capacity by 2030. This calculation is based on the assumption that about 60% of data centers will need newly built power facilities, and that the energy mix of these new capacities will be 60% natural gas and 40% renewable energy. In this framework, photovoltaic generation is expected to contribute around 21 GW of new capacity.

Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Steady Growth; Residential Market Facing Short-Term Adjustment

Goldman predicts that U.S. utility-scale photovoltaic installed capacity will grow by approximately 3% year-on-year in 2026, reaching about 40 GW.

However, the U.S. residential photovoltaic market will face an adjustment period in the same year, mainly due to the expiration of the 25D tax credit for cash and loan sales at the end of 2025. Goldman predicts that residential photovoltaic installed capacity will decline by about 20% year-on-year in 2026.

Industry executives note that the quarter-over-quarter decline in installed capacity may be most pronounced between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. However, Goldman analysis believes that the first quarter of 2026 will be the trough for the year, after which installation momentum is likely to gradually recover.

Valuation Lows Highlighted: Utility-Scale Photovoltaic Stocks Remain at Historic Lows

Although U.S. photovoltaic stocks have rebounded from early 2025 lows, their valuations still remain considerably attractive.

Specifically, the price-to-earnings ratio of utility-scale photovoltaic companies based on 2026 fiscal year earnings expectations is notably lower than that of the overall electricity sector and the broader market. This valuation discount provides investors an opportunity to deploy capital in the transformation of the U.S. power structure at a relatively low cost. Given the significant advantages of photovoltaics versus newly constructed natural gas and nuclear projects in terms of generation cost and deployment speed, the current valuation level may already have left room for future growth.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The above content comes from Wind Trading Desk.

For more detailed analysis, including real-time interpretations and frontline research, please join 【Wind Trading Desk▪Annual Membership】

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risk, and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account any individual users' specific investment goals, financial status, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article suit their particular circumstances. Investment decisions made based on this content are at your own risk.