U.S. Treasury Secretary says that if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, half of the tariffs will have to be refunded.

U.S. Treasury Secretary says that if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, half of the tariffs will have to be refunded.

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After most of Trump’s global tariffs were ruled illegal, the market is closely watching whether the U.S. Supreme Court will “take action.”

According to CCTV News, on the 7th local time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a media interview that if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling that the U.S. government’s tariff measures are illegal, the U.S. Treasury will have to refund about half of the tariffs already collected, and the consequence would be “catastrophic.”

On August 29, the U.S. Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled to allow the current tariff policy to remain in effect until October 14, so that the Trump administration can appeal to the Supreme Court.

As previously mentioned by Wallstreetcn,if the Supreme Court does not intervene by October 14, the August 29 ruling will take effect, and tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) will automatically become invalid; if the Supreme Court decides to accept the case, oral arguments could be held in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a final decision expected in the first quarter of 2026.

Other circuit court decisions could also affect the situation. The Ninth Circuit Court and the D.C. Circuit Court—which is seen as Trump-friendly—will hear relevant cases on September 17 and September 30, respectively. If there is a “circuit split” with rulings contrary to the appeals court, it would significantly increase pressure on the Supreme Court to take the case.

In addition, even if usage of the IEEPA is restricted, the Trump administration still has other tools to maintain tariff pressure. According to analysis, the government may turn to the following legal authorities:

  • Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act: Allows tariffs on “strategic industries” such as steel, chips, electric vehicle batteries, and pharmaceuticals on the grounds of “national security.”
  • Section 122 of the Trade Act: Allows the president to impose up to 15% tariffs on all imports in an emergency, for up to 150 days.
  • Section 338 of the Tariff Act: Allows for retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% after investigation.
  • Section 301 of the Trade Act.

Analysis points out that even if the Supreme Court ultimately issues an unfavorable ruling for the White House, the Trump administration may still compensate for the roughly $150 billion expected revenue loss by selectively escalating tariffs.

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