UBP Swiss Bank bought the dip in gold, still targeting $6,000 by year-end.

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Gold has recently experienced a sharp pullback due to inflation concerns and liquidity pressures triggered by the Iran war, but the bulls have not exited the market. Swiss private bank Union Bancaire Privée (UBP) is taking the opportunity to rebuild its gold positions at lower prices, and maintains its year-end target price of $6,000 per ounce.

Paras Gupta, UBP’s Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management for Asia, said that as the market’s unilateral long positions have been largely cleared out, the bank has begun to gradually rebuild clients’ gold holdings. Currently, gold holdings have risen from about 3% after reduction back up to around 6% of discretionary portfolios, with plans to further increase. Gupta noted that structural demand drivers—including central bank gold buying, fiscal deficit concerns, and geopolitical tensions—remain intact.

Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the gold price has fallen about 10%, but overall is still up about 80% so far this year. According to World Gold Council data, global central banks had net purchases of 27 tons of gold in February, with Poland leading the world by increasing its reserves by 20 tons in a single month, and ongoing central bank purchases continue to provide medium- and long-term support for gold prices.

UBP: Unilateral Clearance Ends, Rebuilding on Dips

After the outbreak of war, soaring energy prices pushed up inflation expectations. Investors sold gold to make up for losses in other markets and to gain liquidity, causing gold prices to plunge. UBP followed suit by significantly reducing its gold position from about 10% to 3% to avoid short-term shocks.

As the sell-off neared its end, UBP began rebuilding positions.Gupta said that gold holdings among institutional and retail investors are now "quite balanced," and the previously accumulated unilateral long positions have been largely cleared, creating healthier entry conditions for a new round of buying.

The position rebuilding is mainly based on physically-backed gold ETFs. Gupta said the bank still forecasts that the gold price will reach $6,000/oz by year-end, with the core logic being: continued central bank purchases, ongoing pressure from fiscal deficits, and unchanged global geopolitical uncertainties.

However, Gupta also acknowledges that further increases in holdings require clearer signals. "We haven’t yet obtained this clarity," he said. "Weekend developments have only reinforced our need for more certainty."

UBP manages about CHF 184.5 billion (about $233 billion) in client assets.

Short-term Inflation Risks, Long-term Fundamentals Intact

Gupta pointed out that inflation risks are "materializing more quickly," which exerts short-term pressure on gold—as gold typically comes under pressure amid high interest rate expectations, since it yields no interest income.

However, he also emphasized that the current macro outlook does not point to a recession, meaning the market’s pessimism toward gold may be overdone. In his view, once geopolitical developments become clearer and inflation expectations stabilize, gold’s structural bullish logic will come to the fore once again.

UBP’s view is not unique. According to Bloomberg, ANZ Banking Group and Goldman Sachs have both recently reiterated their predictions for long-term gold price increases. There are also signs of a recovery at the ETF level—Bloomberg data shows that, after March saw the largest monthly net outflow in five years, global gold ETF holdings rebounded by about 20 tons in April, with bottom-fishing capital starting to enter the market.

Global Central Banks Keep Buying Gold, Structural Demand Continues

The latest report from the World Gold Council on April 2 shows that in February 2026, global central banks had net gold purchases of 27 tons, a clear increase from January and roughly on par with the monthly average of 26 tons for all of 2025. The net cumulative purchases in the first two months of this year were 31 tons, lower than the 50 tons for the same period last year.

The National Bank of Poland led with a single-month purchase of 20 tons, the largest monthly increase in nearly a year. Its total gold reserves have increased to 570 tons, accounting for 31% of total reserves. The central bank governor, Adam Glapiński, has previously announced a gold reserve target of 700 tons, showing a clear intent for long-term accumulation.

Regarding continuous buying: the Czech National Bank has net bought gold for 36 consecutive months, with reserves rising to 75 tons; China’s central bank has increased for 16 months in a row; Kazakhstan added 8 tons, bringing reserves to the highest level since January 2023; Uzbekistan had five consecutive months of net purchases, with gold accounting for as much as 88% of its total reserves.

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