UBS Buyside "Speaks Out Suddenly": Gold Still Has Upside Potential, Short-term Volatility May Intensify

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This week, the price of gold once broke through $4,000 per ounce, setting a new historical record.

Amid cheers and doubts from investors, the outlook for gold’s trend has sparked heated debate.

UBS’s buy-side institutions have issued a key assessment: gold’s “run” is not yet over, predicting gold prices will rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months.

Zi Shi Tang has summarized the latest views from the UBS Wealth Management Investment Office as follows for readers’ reference.

Gold Rises to “Strongest Asset”

This week, gold prices once broke through $4,000 per ounce during trading. The rise is mainly driven by investors’ boosted confidence in the Fed’s rate-cut cycle, the weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties such as the US government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Gold has become the strongest performing major asset class this year, with an increase of over 52%, far surpassing the gains during the pandemic and global financial crisis. This rally began in August when Fed Chair Powell signaled an intent to cut rates.

Global Central Banks Support Gold Prices

According to data from the World Gold Council (WGC), central banks around the world are also supporting gold prices. In the first half of 2025, central bank gold purchases totaled 415 tons, and in September, gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw the highest net inflow in history.

Future Prices May Reach $4,200 per Ounce

Gold’s record rise reflects a significant increase in investor demand for defensive assets against a backdrop of economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes.

Given the magnitude and speed of the rise this year, volatility may intensify in the short term, but UBS buy-side believes gold still has room to rise driven by fundamentals and momentum. We currently forecast the price of gold will rise to $4,200 per ounce in the coming months.

From an asset allocation perspective, diversification and hedging remain essential, and we continue to maintain an “attractive” view on gold.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment needs caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investments based on this article are at your own risk. ```