UBS Expert Conference Call: The technology gap between China and the US in brain-computer interfaces is expected to significantly narrow within two years.

UBS Expert Conference Call: The technology gap between China and the US in brain-computer interfaces is expected to significantly narrow within two years.

UBS recently held an expert conference call on the commercialization of brain-computer interfaces (BCI). The key takeaway is very clear: Although China is currently about two years behind the US in core BCI technologies, this gap is expected to significantly narrow in two years.

On January 13, according to news from Wind Chaser Trading Desk, UBS’s latest research report states that at a recent industry expert conference call, experts indicated that while Chinese companies currently lag behind the US by about two years in this field, the Chinese BCI market is expected to experience exponential growth as product maturity and application scenarios expand.

Experts reveal that Chinese BCI products are at different stages of R&D and commercialization. Non-invasive products already have items on the market, and more are expected to be launched in the next 6 to 12 months. Semi-invasive products are expected to be launched for the first time in China within 1 to 2 years, and invasive products may be introduced in 2 to 3 years.

Experts predict that by 2030, the overall market size of BCI products in China could reach tens of billions of RMB. Among these, non-invasive products are expected to account for at least 70% of the market share, significantly higher than semi-invasive and invasive products.

Technological gap: Currently two years behind, hardware and algorithms are the core shortcomings

The report states that experts pointed out on the conference call that Chinese domestic companies currently have about a two-year gap in BCI technology compared to their US counterparts, such as Neuralink. However, this gap is not insurmountable and is expected to start "meaningfully" narrowing in two years.

In electrode technology, American companies have more advanced devices and processing. For example, the number of channels in Chinese devices usually ranges between 128 and 256, while Neuralink achieves up to 1024 channels. However, experts believe that with industry development and rising demand for BCI electrodes, China may be able to mass-produce flexible micro-nano/cortical electrodes within 3 to 5 years.

For chips, Neuralink’s chip is self-developed and highly integrated. In contrast, Chinese companies tend to import chips but can basically meet clinical needs. Experts note that domestic chip manufacturers’ key constraint on BCI chip production is more about demand than technology. Also, the cost of self-developing chips for BCI companies is high, and the quantities required for mass production far exceed the current demand for BCI products.

In decoding technology, US teams are often more mature and attract top talent. Chinese companies have less attraction for top talent and typically optimize mature algorithms published abroad.

Commercialization timeline: Non-invasive comes first, invasive expected in 2027–2028

According to the UBS research report, experts on the call pointed out that different technical paths have obvious differences in regulatory approval and product launch schedules. Specifically:

Non-invasive products are applied in rehabilitation training, mental illness assessment and treatment, sleep monitoring and treatment, fatigue monitoring, etc. Most of these belong to Class I or II medical devices, and some products are already available in China. Experts expect more products to be launched in the next 6 to 12 months.

For semi-invasive products, traditional electrocorticography (ECoG) is used for intraoperative monitoring and rough motion decoding; flexible ECoG offers higher precision for motion decoding; brain-spinal cord interfaces can restore autonomous limb movement by providing continuous electrical stimulation through epidural spinal electrodes.

These products are classified as Class III medical devices. Experts expect the first such product to be launched in China within 1 to 2 years.

Invasive products are used for robotic arm/cursor control, sensory reconstruction, Parkinson's disease, etc. These also belong to Class III medical devices. Experts believe the first product is likely to be introduced in China within 2 to 3 years.

Market size: A blue ocean of hundreds of billions

UBS’s report states that experts are optimistic about the growth prospects of the BCI market. They believe that as products mature and application scenarios expand, the BCI market could see exponential growth in the next 5 to 10 years, and by 2030, the overall market size of Chinese BCI products may reach tens of billions of RMB.

In terms of product pricing, non-invasive products have a broad range of applications. According to experts, sleep monitoring products are priced at about 10,000 RMB (per user device), rehab and psychiatric products are priced between 200,000–400,000 RMB, while those involving exoskeletons may reach several million RMB.

Pricing for invasive and semi-invasive products will reference current deep brain stimulation (DBS) devices and epilepsy-related devices. DBS electrodes are usually priced at around 10,000 RMB, and implantable devices may range from 200,000 to 300,000 RMB.

Experts point out that the annual number of DBS surgeries in China is relatively stable, about 30,000–50,000 cases. Considering policy coverage and patient age, from the perspective of patient affordability and willingness to pay, the coverage of semi-invasive and invasive BCI products may be broader than products for Parkinson’s or epilepsy.

Therefore, if semi-invasive and invasive product prices are similar to DBS devices, their market size may exceed the traditional DBS market. This judgment provides important reference for investors evaluating the market potential in this sector.

 

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