UBS: The demand for humanoid robots is expected to reach 30,000 units in 2026, with real growth possibly occurring in 2027–2028.

UBS Group's latest report points out that humanoid robots are rapidly moving from proof of concept to industrial application, with global demand expected to reach 30,000 units by 2026.

Analyst Phyllis Wang stated in a report released this week that as robots gradually acquire "brains," their ability to perform repetitive tasks in factory workshops and warehouses has been significantly enhanced. Although only a few robots can autonomously complete simple tasks in industrial settings this year, the growth trend has already taken shape.

The report further points out that if breakthroughs are achieved in industrial site applications, demand forecasts for 2027 to 2028 show clear upside potential. Leading manufacturers have begun planning for production capacity, with Tesla planning to build a production line for one million Optimus robots annually, expected to start production at the end of 2026.

UBS believes that although there is still a gap between the intelligence level of robots and customer expectations, manufacturers’ capacity expansion plans show clear confidence in the market outlook.

Chinese Companies Take the Lead Tesla Leads Capacity Expansion

UBS statistics show that global shipments of humanoid robots will reach about 18,600 units in 2025, with Chinese companies already taking the dominant share. Among them, Unitree and AgiBot each ship about 5,000 units, together contributing nearly 10,000 units—over half of the global total—which demonstrates that Chinese companies have established a first-mover advantage in the stage of commercial deployment.

In terms of capacity expansion, Tesla's plans are the most aggressive, aiming to build an annual production line for 1 million Optimus robots, expected to be operational by the end of 2026. UBTECH plans to achieve a production capacity of 10,000 units this year, while Boston Dynamics is expected to establish an annual production capacity of 30,000 units for the Atlas robot by 2028. These arrangements indicate that although products are still in the iteration stage, leading manufacturers have already established positions ahead of large-scale application.

Growth Peak Expected in 2027-28

UBS maintains its baseline forecast of global humanoid robot demand reaching 30,000 units in 2026 but also notes upside risks. If AI technology evolves rapidly or positive customer feedback drives higher adoption rates, demand could reach 35,000 units in an optimistic scenario and potentially 40,000 units in an extreme scenario.

Analyst Phyllis Wang emphasized that once substantial breakthroughs are made in industrial applications, demand forecasts for 2027–2028 will face significant upside, with actual shipment volumes likely to be released during this period.

In terms of application scenarios, humanoid robots are expanding from industrial fields such as factory workshops and warehouses to broader arenas. Currently, they mainly perform repetitive tasks; as AI capabilities continue to evolve, their functional boundaries are expected to continuously expand.

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