Unafraid of the Middle East situation, tight supply and demand push London copper to a record high.

``` Copper prices surged sharply on Monday, with London copper hitting a new all-time high closing record. The metals market demonstrated strong immunity to geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Tightened supply and demand has replaced geopolitical variables as the core driver of price trends. London copper closed up 2.7% at $13,943/ton, surpassing the previous high of $13,618 set on January 29, setting a new historical closing record. All major metal contracts on the London Metal Exchange recorded gains. Last week’s rally extended into Monday, despite Trump’s rejection of Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it "completely unacceptable," while the US and Iran remain far apart on a framework agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Metals prices rose along with a stabilizing stock market, indicating that investors have limited concerns about a serious escalation of the situation. Since the end of 2025, London copper has cumulatively risen about 12%, though it experienced heavy selling at the outbreak of the Iran war. At last week’s major annual gathering of the metals market in Hong Kong, bullish views dominated, with increased industrial demand and supply constraints as main factors. Fundamentals of Supply and Demand Support an Independent Rally in Copper According to Jia Zheng, head trader at Suzhou Chuangyuan Heying Capital Management Co., quoted by Bloomberg, “The market has moved past the impact of the US-Iran conflict, and copper has now formed an independent price trend.” She noted this is primarily due to factors such as tight supply and declining inventories. In April, China’s dollar-denominated exports grew by 14.1% year-on-year, with exports from high copper-consuming sectors such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and wind turbines rising by 68.1%, 43.2%, and 40.7% respectively, showing strong performance and further reinforcing expectations for global industrial metals demand. Citigroup analysts believe that ongoing metal demand from energy transition and defense, combined with constraints on the supply side, will enhance copper’s resilience in the extreme event of the Strait of Hormuz being closed for an extended period. Aluminum and Nickel Strengthen in Tandem Aluminum prices rose more than 2%, while nickel gained 1.9%. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacts Gulf aluminum smelters that rely on the region’s sulfur supply, as well as nickel producers in other areas. A team led by Amy Gower, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, noted in a report that “aluminum typically lags on days when Middle East tensions ‘ease,’ but since restarting smelters takes time, we think this may present a buying opportunity.” The team also noted that if a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz leads to further production cuts in the Middle East, LME aluminum prices or regional premiums could receive additional support. Risk Reminder and Disclaimer The market involves risk, and investment should be undertaken with caution. This article does not constitute individual investment advice, nor does it take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any individual user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk. ```