Under the obstruction of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia "changes course to survive," Yanbu Red Sea port export approaches 5 million barrel target

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Against the backdrop of persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy transport landscape is being rapidly reshaped. The latest news shows that Saudi Arabia is significantly increasing the scale of crude oil exports via the Red Sea, using its East-West pipeline to bypass this critical chokepoint and attempting to offset supply shocks caused by the Middle East situation, but the overall gap remains difficult to fully make up.

According to reports from Wednesday, the 25th Eastern time, since crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz essentially stalled at the end of February, Saudi Arabia has promptly adjusted its export routes, redirecting crude previously shipped via the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, significantly enhancing the shipment capacity of this channel. In just over two weeks, Yanbu port’s crude oil exports have doubled.

Shipping data shows that over the five days ending this Tuesday, crude oil loadings at Yanbu's north and south terminals have reached an average of about 4.4 million barrels per day, closing in on the target level of 5 million barrels per day.

This adjustment is in response to the severe shock of the Middle Eastern energy artery being "cut off." The Strait of Hormuz once handled roughly 15 million barrels/day of global crude transport; now, with large-scale disruption, international oil prices are directly pushed up, triggering refineries to scramble for substitute crude, and causing fuel shortages in some regions, among other chain reactions.

In this context, Saudi Arabia is among the few oil-producing countries with "bypassing capability." Its core infrastructure—the East-West pipeline connecting the Abqaiq processing center in the east to Yanbu port on the Red Sea—has a nominal capacity of about 7 million barrels per day. However, as domestic refineries, electricity, and seawater desalination needs take precedence, the actual incremental space available for export is limited, at around 5 million barrels per day.

Even so, Saudi Arabia's "rerouting" cannot fully fill the gap. Media estimates suggest that even if Yanbu’s exports reach target levels, this can only make up about half of this month’s losses in Persian Gulf exports, with overall export volumes about 2 million barrels/day lower than before the conflict.

More concerning, a large amount of already loaded crude oil remains stranded in the Persian Gulf. Data show approximately 56 million barrels of Saudi crude are trapped in Gulf waters, unable to be shipped through the Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, at least 40 VLCCs are anchored near Yanbu waiting to load, reflecting logistic systems under extreme pressure.

In terms of flow, Saudi Arabia is prioritizing Asian demand. China and India have become the main destinations for Yanbu exports, while Korea, Pakistan, Thailand, and others are also receiving shipments; Japan has partially supplemented its supply via Okinawa oil storage facilities. Meanwhile, supplies to Europe and North America’s east coast are mostly completed through the Red Sea–Suez–Mediterranean alternative route.

In fact, there have long been signs of plans to "bypass Hormuz." Multiple media have previously reported that Saudi Arabia has, in recent years, continuously strengthened the East-West pipeline and Red Sea port infrastructure precisely to retain strategic export channels under extreme geopolitical risk. This conflict marks the first large-scale real-world test of this "backup system."

However, the market widely believes that the efficiency and scale of this alternative solution still face obvious bottlenecks. On one hand, the capacity of pipelines and ports is limited, unable to fully replicate the scale of Persian Gulf exports; on the other hand, elongated transport routes and more complex scheduling raise logistics costs and delivery uncertainty.

While the supply side is constrained, chain reactions are appearing on the demand side. Some Asian nations are speeding up oil stockpiling, European refineries are forced to pay higher premiums for substitute crude, and energy security issues are rising again.

Overall, although Saudi Arabia’s “Red Sea breakthrough” provides a buffer for the global market in the short term, it also highlights a deeper change: under the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, global energy supply chains are shifting from “efficiency first” to “security first,” and the strategic risk premium for key nodes like Hormuz is being repriced.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer ClauseThe market contains risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the individual investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any specific user. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their particular circumstances. Investment is at your own risk. ```