Unexpected! Since the Iran war, U.S. retail gasoline prices have soared to "second highest in the world"

```

The energy market shock triggered by the Middle East conflict is reshaping the global oil price landscape in unexpected ways—America is being hit harder by this crisis than most market participants had anticipated.

According to Chase the Wind Trading Desk, the latest report from JPMorgan’s Commodities Research Team points out that since the outbreak of the Iran war, U.S. retail gasoline prices have risen by more than 42%, second only to some Southeast Asian countries among major global economies, placing the U.S. among the regions with the largest increases globally. This result forms a sharp contrast to the widely held belief that the U.S., with strong energy self-sufficiency, would be less affected by Middle East turmoil.

This shock is not limited to gasoline. The report shows that for multiple types of refined oil products—diesel, jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil—U.S. price increases also rank among the highest globally. In jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil, the U.S. has even become the region with the greatest price surge worldwide. The broad rise in energy prices continues to exert pressure on U.S. consumers and business costs.

Southeast Asia bears the brunt, the U.S. unexpectedly becomes a hard-hit region

The report quotes Singapore’s Foreign Minister calling the conflict "an Asian crisis" and highlights that the most direct physical supply shock is concentrated in Southeast Asia, due to the region’s heavy reliance on oil flows passing through the Middle East.

The data bears this out. From the outbreak of the war to April 27, retail gasoline prices in Southeast Asia rose by about 37%, with increases particularly prominent in Myanmar, Malaysia, Pakistan, and the Philippines. Unexpectedly, the U.S. surpassed Southeast Asia’s overall rise with increases over 42%, ranking just behind a few Asian countries globally, surprising the market.

In contrast, gasoline price increases in major European economies have been relatively moderate. The rise in the UK, France, and Germany is noticeably lower than in the U.S., while Russia and India are among the lowest globally.

Multiple oil product categories, the U.S. faces broad pressure

The impact on the U.S. is not limited to gasoline but presents systemic price pressure in the refined oil market.

For diesel, U.S. price increases are second only to Asia and Oceania, ranking among the global top tier. For jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil, U.S. price increases have surpassed Asia, rising to become the highest globally. In liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), Asia leads but the U.S. follows closely, also significantly higher than Europe. The above data comes from JPMorgan’s Commodity Research Team’s systematic tracking of price changes in each region from February 27 to April 27.

"Two sides of the same coin": Resonance between Asia and America

JPMorgan labels Asia and the Americas as "two sides of the same coin" in the report title, revealing seemingly different but actually shared transmission mechanisms in this shock across the two regions.

The logic behind Asia’s price surge is straightforward: Middle East supply disruptions directly cut off the region’s crude and refined oil import routes, causing an immediate supply-side shock.

Behind the abnormal price rise in the U.S. lies the highly integrated global refined oil market—after the Middle East situation tightened global supply, the U.S. domestic market is also significantly affected, especially under the combined influence of refinery operating rates, refined oil export flows, and international arbitrage mechanisms, with price pressures quickly transmitted to the U.S. through market channels.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The above highlights are from Chase the Wind Trading Desk.

For more detailed interpretations, including real-time analysis and frontline research, please join [Chase the Wind Trading Desk ▪ Annual Membership]

Risk Disclosure and DisclaimerThe market has risks, and investments should be made cautiously. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their circumstances. Investing accordingly is at one’s own risk. ```