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News of the U.S. launching a military strike against Iran shook global markets, but before the explosions were heard, there were already quiet deployments in prediction markets.

According to blockchain analysis firm Bubblemaps, six suspected insider accounts on the Polymarket platform concentrated their bets on "Yes" hours before the U.S. airstrike on Iran, netting a combined profit of about $1.2 million. These accounts were all registered in February, with most wallets only completed funding within 24 hours before the attack, and no other trading records besides the aforementioned bets.

The incident has triggered strong concern about regulatory loopholes in prediction platforms. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) just issued a warning last week regarding insider trading in prediction markets, with regulatory pressure mounting.

According to a WallstreetCN article, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale joint military strike against Iran on February 28. According to CCTV News, Trump posted a video on the "Truth Social" platform the same day, confirming that the U.S. military had launched a "major combat operation" against Iran and declared to Tehran, "When the operation is over, take over your government."

After the news went public, Bitcoin's price dropped, while oil futures on the Hyperliquid platform surged due to expectations of escalated regional conflicts. Transaction volumes in this contract market reached nearly $90 million on February 28, and since last December, related contract markets about the U.S. strike date on Iran have amassed over $529 million in total trading volume, showing the market's high attention to this geopolitical event.

Six Accounts Bet Precisely, Profit $1.2 Million

According to Bubblemaps' analysis report released on social platform X, six Polymarket accounts concentrated purchases of "Yes" shares on the contract market "Will the U.S. strike Iran before February 28, 2026?", and profited after the market settled at $1 per share, with total earnings around $1.2 million.

One account bought more than 560,000 "Yes" shares at about 10.8 cents each, eventually profiting nearly $560,000; another account bought almost 150,000 shares at 20 cents and recorded six-figure profits as well.

Bubblemaps' visualization shows clear connections among the six wallets, with highly similar funding paths.

All the above accounts were created in February, with most completing their first funding within 24 hours before the attack, and with no other transactional activity besides this bet. This behavioral pattern highly matches typical insider trading characteristics.

Additionally, according to MikeLevin's post on social platform X, one Polymarket account named "Magamyman" among the six earned $515,000 in a single day, with its first transaction occurring 71 minutes before the news went public.

At that time, the probability pricing for the U.S. strike on Iran was just 17%. The account entered with about $87,000 and gained over $500,000 overnight.

Notably, MikeLevin also pointed out in his post that Donald Trump Jr. is currently a member of the Polymarket advisory board, and his affiliated company invested tens of millions of dollars in the platform last year.

Moreover, previously, both the U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC investigated Polymarket, but these investigations were withdrawn after Trump took office. He called for parties involved to explain the situation and push for transparency and regulatory follow-up.

Regulatory Pressure Rises, Prediction Market Insider Trading Issues Surface

As this incident occurred, U.S. regulators are intensifying scrutiny on insider trading activities in prediction markets.

Competing platform Kalshi announced this week that it has suspended and punished two users suspected of insider trading. One was a visual effects editor for MrBeast's show "Beast Games," accused of trading using non-public information about the show’s results and was banned for two years with fines exceeding $20,000; the other case involved a political candidate betting on their own election contract.

Kalshi stated it has investigated about 200 cases on its platform, with more than ten still under active investigation.

The CFTC promptly issued a notice, warning that insider trading in event contracts may violate U.S. law, and Chairman Mike Selig called exchanges the "first line of defense."

Meanwhile, insider trading issues on Polymarket are not unprecedented. Last week, blockchain investigator ZachXBT hinted he would release an investigation report on a crypto platform, sparking speculation in the market and prompting a Polymarket contract betting "which company will be named."

According to Lookonchain's identification, 12 wallets heavily bet on Axiom before the investigation results were announced, with company employees accused of trading on non-public information.

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