US AI chatbot war: ChatGPT's market share dropped from 69.1% to 45.3%, Gemini rose from 14.7% to 25.1%, Grok rose from 1.6% to 15.2%.

OpenAI’s dominance in the AI chatbot market is being eroded by competitors. Mobile app data shows that ChatGPT’s share of daily active users in the US has dropped sharply from 69.1% to 45.3% over the past year, while Google’s Gemini and Musk’s Grok have seen rapid growth, reshaping the market landscape. On February 4, according to data provided by mobile app intelligence firm Apptopia to Big Technology, Gemini’s market share rose from 14.7% to 25.1% between January 2025 and January 2026, while Grok surged from 1.6% to 15.2%. This shift indicates that after a year of fierce competition, the AI chatbot market has evolved from a single dominant player to a competitive battlefield among multiple strong contenders. Despite the decline in market share, ChatGPT’s absolute user numbers are still growing. Similarweb analysis shows that ChatGPT’s visits on desktop and mobile web increased from 3.8 billion to 5.7 billion, a rise of 50%. However, Gemini’s growth is even more remarkable, with visits soaring from 267.7 million to 2 billion, an increase of 647%. Meanwhile, users are showing a trend toward using multiple platforms, with 20% using more than two apps. There are significant differences in time spent on each; Claude users increased their average daily usage from 10 minutes to over 30 minutes, indicating the market is moving toward differentiated competition. --- ChatGPT’s Growth Slows as Competitors Accelerate ChatGPT maintained strong growth throughout most of 2025, but experienced a dip in traffic in November and December, coinciding with Gemini’s surge. According to David Carr, News & Research Editor at Similarweb Insights, ChatGPT’s traffic peaked at over 6 billion visits in October before declining. Preliminary data suggests that in January 2026, ChatGPT’s traffic has recovered somewhat, but has not yet returned to the peak level. At the same time, Gemini continues its strong growth momentum. According to preliminary estimates for January, Gemini’s traffic grew by 17% month-on-month. This growth trajectory shows that Google is leveraging its strengths in search and mobile ecosystems to successfully direct users to its AI products. Grok’s rise is also noteworthy. Developed by Musk’s xAI, this chatbot grew its market share from 1.6% to 15.2% in a year, a nearly tenfold increase, making it the third-largest player in the market. --- Market Growth Levels Off, Gap Between Early Adopters and Mass Users After rapid growth for most of 2025, the chatbot market has begun to stabilize in recent months. Adam Blacker, PR director at Apptopia, says the market is leveling off; although generative AI apps have not yet reached their peak, this is an early inflection point and there may be a gap between early adopters and other users. Data shows that most devices measured by Apptopia have never used chatbots, indicating huge room for market growth. Early adopters’ enthusiasm has driven generative AI since ChatGPT’s launch, but widespread adoption will require more time. Analysis suggests that these market characteristics mean the AI chatbot industry is still in its early phase, and the battle for market share is far from over. Companies must find effective ways to break out from early adopter circles and reach mainstream users. --- Users Show Multi-Platform Trends, Marked Differences in Usage Time Competition in the chatbot market is not a zero-sum game. Data shows that by the end of 2025, 20% of chatbot users use at least two apps, compared to only 5% at the end of 2023. This indicates that users are choosing different AI tools for different needs, rather than sticking to a single platform. Pure user numbers cannot fully reflect the market landscape, as there are significant differences in the amount of time users spend on different chatbots. Although Anthropic’s Claude has far fewer users than ChatGPT or Gemini, the amount of time users spend on it has increased sharply from about 10 minutes per day in June 2025 to over 30 minutes now. This trend shows that the AI chatbot market is moving toward differentiated competition. User engagement and depth of usage may more accurately reflect a product’s true value than sheer market share, giving smaller, more specialized competitors space to survive. Risk Warning and Disclaimer The market involves risks; investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, perspectives, or conclusions in this article are applicable to their particular circumstances. Investments made accordingly are at your own risk.