US initial jobless claims fell to 196,000 last week, the lowest level since 1969, indicating a job market characterized by "low layoffs and low hiring."

The latest U.S. employment data presents a rare period of strength: for the week ending September 12, initial jobless claims fell to 196,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week, one of the lowest levels since 1969; continuing jobless claims also fell to 1.73 million, a new low since January 2024. The data indicates that U.S. companies are currently experiencing few large-scale layoffs, and the employment stock remains relatively stable.

However, consumer surveys provide a significantly weaker picture of the labor market. The Conference Board's labor market survey shows that job seekers' perceptions of the employment environment continue to deteriorate. This stark divergence between the two sets of data complicates market assessments of the true strength of the current U.S. job market.

Bloomberg economist Eliza Winger stated that while initial jobless claims data continues to indicate limited pressure for layoffs, further tightening of policy by the Federal Reserve could weaken the currently relatively stable labor market. This means that low layoff numbers do not necessarily indicate a lack of pressure in the job market, and the impact of policy tightening on hiring and employment demand remains a concern.

Holiday factors have disrupted the workforce, but the trend of low layoffs remains quite evident.

The sharp drop in initial jobless claims this time needs to be considered in light of the seasonal impact of the Labor Day holiday. Labor Department data shows that, after adjusting for seasonal factors, the decline in initial jobless claims last week was even more pronounced, with California, Texas, Michigan, and New York experiencing particularly significant drops, consistent with seasonal fluctuations caused by Labor Day and the start of the new school year.

However, a smoother indicator suggests that the low layoff trend is not entirely due to weekly fluctuations. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell to 203,250, the lowest level in five weeks, indicating that companies' willingness to lay off employees remains low in the near term.

More noteworthy is the current job market exhibiting a pattern of "low layoffs and low hiring." Bloomberg reports that while some well-known companies occasionally announce layoffs, the overall pressure for layoffs in the economy remains limited; at the same time, hiring activities are not active, and current employees are more cautious about changing jobs due to fewer external opportunities.

This means that job market stability comes more from the retention of existing jobs than from the rapid expansion of new jobs. For those already employed, their jobs are relatively stable; but for job seekers and workers looking to change jobs, employment opportunities may be significantly reduced.

The divergence between the two sets of data reflects changes in the structure of the job market.

Therefore, initial jobless claims data and consumer surveys are not necessarily contradictory, but may reflect different aspects of the labor market. The former mainly measures "how many people have lost their jobs," and current data shows that corporate layoffs are still at a low level; the latter reflects more on "how easy it is to find a job," and this indicator has already shown more obvious pressure.

In other words, the US labor market is exhibiting characteristics of "stable existing jobs and weak new job creation": existing positions are relatively stable, but new job creation and labor market liquidity may be weakening. If this trend continues, future pressure on the job market may not first manifest as a surge in layoffs, but could also be reflected in slower hiring, fewer job hopping, and increased difficulty in finding employment.

This structural divergence will also affect wage growth, consumer spending, and the Federal Reserve's assessment of the labor market.

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