US-Iran negotiations imminent: Iran demands Lebanon ceasefire first, Trump threatens "extremely painful" consequences if no deal is reached

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The first round of direct talks between the United States and Iran was originally scheduled to be held in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on April 11 local time, but significant changes have emerged in the prospects for negotiations before they even began. Iran's precondition of a ceasefire in Lebanon, the Supreme Leader's tough stance, and Trump's optimistic remarks are all intertwining, filling these negotiations—which affect global energy markets and geopolitics—with uncertainty.

According to CCTV News, sources revealed that Iran has conveyed its position to the US via the mediator Pakistan: Iranian representatives refuse to attend talks with the US until a ceasefire is achieved in Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Trump publicly stated on April 9 that he is “very optimistic” about reaching an agreement, saying Iran’s leaders “are agreeing to everything they have to accept,” and issued a warning: “If they don’t reach an agreement, the consequences will be extremely painful.”

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei immediately made a written statement, declaring Iran’s “decisive victory” in the “imposed war”, and making clear that Iran “will pursue its established goals both at the negotiating table and on the battlefield.” Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Qalibaf, warned that if the US fails to honor its commitments, Iran will "consider resuming action," and stressed both Iranian citizens and armed forces are prepared for all scenarios.

For the market, the outcome of the negotiations is directly tied to the stability of the Hormuz Strait, a key global energy route. Qalibaf explicitly positioned the potential impact of the Hormuz Strait as an "important deterrent" against the US economy. Whether the talks proceed as scheduled, and their ultimate outcome, will directly influence global oil prices and regional geopolitical risk premiums.

Islamabad on High Alert, Talks Feature High-Level Delegations

According to Xinhua News Agency, White House press secretary Levitt formally announced on April 8 that the first round of US-Iran talks would take place in Islamabad on the morning of April 11 local time. CCTV reporters observing in the core government area ("Red Zone") of Islamabad found all surrounding roads closed, with police and military security firmly in place.

Pakistan’s Interior Minister Naqvi stated that all security measures have been arranged and will ensure a safe and smooth meeting. Hassan Dawood, Senior Professor at Bahria University, told CCTV that these talks "will help bridge the current distrust to some extent", but stressed this will require the joint efforts of the whole international community.

The US delegation is high-level, including Vice President Vance, Presidential Envoy Wittkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Kushner, showing Washington's strong emphasis on these negotiations.

Trump’s Optimism and Pressure on Israel to De-escalate

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump said in a phone interview with NBC reporters on April 9 that compared with their statements to the media, Iranian leaders are “much more reasonable” in direct talks, and he is “very optimistic” about reaching an agreement.

To directly address Iran’s precondition of a Lebanon ceasefire, Trump confirmed that on April 8 he called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, requesting Israel reduce military operations in Lebanon, and said Netanyahu will “handle things in a low-profile way.” This move shows Washington is proactively narrowing Iran’s conditional threshold to facilitate talks as scheduled.

However, while Trump expressed goodwill toward negotiations, he also left room for pressure on Tehran—“If they don’t reach an agreement, the consequences will be extremely painful.” This language is widely interpreted externally as sending a dual signal to accommodate both domestic hardliners and diplomatic negotiation pace.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Sets Out Three Claims, Declares “Decisive Victory”

On the evening of April 9, Mojtaba Khamenei gave a written address marking the fortieth day since former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination, expressing three core positions: aggressors must compensate for losses; management of the Hormuz Strait will enter a new stage; Iran will never relinquish legitimate rights, and regards all “resistance fronts” in the region as a whole.

Mojtaba declared that the Iranian nation has achieved "decisive victory" in the "imposed war", Iran is rising as an important force, and "the hegemonic system is declining". He called out to Iran’s “southern neighbors”, urging them to stay away from “tyrants who exploit you” and show goodwill toward Iran.

Worth noting, he emphasized public participation’s impact on negotiations, saying “your voice in the square will influence the outcome,” and warned people to beware of hostile media information. This statement serves domestic political mobilization and shows Tehran’s clear signal not to make unilateral concessions in negotiations.

Iranian Parliament Warns: If the US Breaks Its Promise, Military Action Will Resume

Qalibaf on April 9 said the US accepting Iran’s negotiation principles is a “stage achievement” for Iran, emphasizing Iran insists on combining military and diplomatic means, and is “confident of ultimate victory in war.” He also drew a clear red line: if the US fails to honor commitments, Iran will “consider resuming action.”

On the military capability side, Qalibaf claimed Iran’s missiles and drones have “penetrated advanced defense systems at extremely low cost”, and positioned potential control over the Hormuz Strait as an “important deterrent” against the US economy—identifying a core bargaining chip for Iran in negotiations.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Ministry of Health on April 10 released the latest casualty statistics from US-Israel war on Iran, showing 55 emergency bases destroyed, including 4,992 women and 2,115 children under 18 among the injured. The public disclosure of these statistics is expected to further strengthen Iran’s domestic political support for a tough negotiating stance, reducing room for Tehran's negotiators to make concessions.

Continuously updating…

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