US-Iran talks in name only? Iranian concessions? Significant differences remain? Saudi Arabia resumes exports? Overnight oil prices fluctuated and fell amid mixed signals.

International oil prices experienced wild fluctuations on Monday, undergoing a rollercoaster ride amid a barrage of bullish and bearish news, ultimately narrowing gains and even turning negative for a period. The restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, positive signals from US-Iran nuclear negotiations, reports that Iran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, and subsequent statements from US negotiators indicating significant differences —four conflicting sets of news emerged in quick succession within hours, turning the crude oil futures market into a "headline roulette."

On that day, WTI crude oil reached a high of $96.54 per barrel, a daily increase of nearly 4.5%; Brent crude oil rose to a high of $108.83 per barrel, an increase of over 4.3%. However, as a series of diplomatic developments between the US and Iran emerged, the gains of both quickly narrowed. WTI once fell to $91.25 per barrel, a daily drop of nearly 1%; Brent once fell to $103.76 per barrel, both retracing more than $5 from their daily highs. The core logic of market trading was whether the expectation of diplomatic progress could translate into a substantial recovery in supply, rather than the actual implementation of these developments.

Meanwhile, according to media reports, sources revealed that Iranian officials are privately pessimistic about reaching an agreement before the US midterm elections in November, believing that the possibility of an escalation of conflict between the US and Iran after the elections on November 3 is high. This statement contrasts sharply with the optimism that emerged during the trading session, making any one-sided movement in oil prices unsustainable.

A barrage of diplomatic news from the US and Iran caused algorithmic volatility during trading.

What truly set oil prices on a rollercoaster ride was the barrage of diplomatic news from the US and Iran during the midday trading session.

According to ZeroHedge's analysis, the news that emerged during the day was as follows: CNN reported that Trump was willing to trade progress on the nuclear issue for sanctions relief, causing oil prices to fall; then Saudi media Alhadath reported that Iran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, further pushing oil prices down; next, news emerged that Iranian officials were pessimistic about reaching an agreement before the midterm elections, causing oil prices to rebound; finally, US negotiators told Al Arabiya TV that "there are huge differences and significant obstacles," putting renewed pressure on oil prices.

Bloomberg analyst Frank Monkam points out that there has been a resurgence of the so-called "VaR shock" strategy in the past few trading days—related headlines tend to appear around noon Eastern Time, when liquidity tends to be thin. The logic is that Brent crude at $105 to $110 (WTI at around $95) is a key threshold that the market is watching closely, and verbal pressure can not only push down prices but also force traders to drastically reduce their positions by creating volatility.

Looking at the intraday price movements, WTI crude oil fell from a high of $96.54 to a low of $91.25, while Brent crude oil fell from $108.83 to $103.76, with both prices retreating by more than $5 within a few hours.

The restart of the Saudi pipeline has brought relief to supply-side pressures.

The first substantial negative factor that put pressure on oil prices that day came from the repair and restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline.

According to an article on Wall Street News , citing sources familiar with the matter, Saudi Aramco began loading crude oil into the Red Sea port of Yanbu via the East-West Pipeline on Sunday, with the pipeline currently carrying approximately 3.5 million barrels per day. Following the announcement, Brent crude oil's gains narrowed on Monday, but it still remained above $105 per barrel at one point.

This 750-mile-long pipeline traverses Saudi Arabia, connecting major oil-producing regions along the Persian Gulf coast with the Red Sea port of Yanbu. It is a key alternative route for Saudi Arabia to transport crude oil outside the Strait of Hormuz, with a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day. The pipeline was shut down after a drone attack on September 10th; previously, it transported approximately 4 million barrels per day, representing about 4% of global supply.

During the pipeline shutdown, Saudi Aramco significantly increased crude oil loading through the port of Rastanura in the Persian Gulf. Data from ship tracking agency Kpler shows that loading at Rastanura has surged from approximately 1.5 million barrels per day in early September to approximately 6.5 million barrels per day. The reopening of the East-West pipeline means that both of Saudi Arabia's export routes are expected to operate simultaneously, potentially exceeding pre-attack export levels.

Hamad Hussain, senior economist at Capital Economics, said that if high export volumes from the Persian Gulf remain stable, coupled with the gradual resumption of operations at Yanbu port, Saudi Arabia's overall crude oil exports are expected to surpass pre-attack levels, thus reversing the recent oil price rally. However, he also warned that "given the threat posed by the Houthis to energy infrastructure, exporting from Yanbu is now far more difficult than at the beginning of the conflict." Security risks along the Red Sea route remain a significant variable constraining the recovery of Saudi exports.

The nuclear issue has become a new focal point of negotiations, but the disagreement over "who should act first" remains unresolved.

The framework for diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran is undergoing subtle changes—the exchange between the nuclear issue and sanctions easing is replacing previous negotiations on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as the new core of the game between the two sides.

An article on Wall Street Insights cited a CNN report on the 28th local time, stating that a US official revealed Trump was willing to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for "concrete progress" from Iran on the nuclear agreement. The official stated that the US and Iran are currently engaged in "positive and constructive discussions" through mediators. Axios subsequently cited multiple US officials, whose reports were largely consistent with CNN's.

However, Trump denied the report in a post on his social media account after the market closed that day, saying, "This is not true. I did not make any concessions to them," and demanded that Axios retract the article.

Meanwhile, Saudi media outlet Hadas reported that Iran has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in exchange for the easing of US sanctions, and that mediators are pressuring Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program. However, as of now, this news lacks official confirmation from both the US and Iran and should not be considered a formal agreement.

The core disagreement between the two sides lies in "who should act first": the US wants Iran to make substantial commitments on the nuclear issue before easing sanctions; Iran's previous proposal emphasized that the US should first reduce military pressure, lift the blockade, and ease sanctions. If Hadas's report is true, it means that the two sides may be loosening their stance on the "order of action" in the negotiations, but this change still needs official confirmation.

Qatar is mediating the move, but Iran is privately pessimistic.

On the diplomatic front, Qatar is pushing the US and Iran to resume indirect contact through a mediator, but the two sides are still quite far from a substantive agreement.

According to an article on Wall Street Insights , Reuters reported that an official familiar with the negotiations revealed that the Qatari mediators are expected to hold talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US representatives on the 28th or 29th, respectively, focusing on the revised version of the "7-day plan" that Iran proposed during the UN General Assembly last week.

Iran's previously proposed "7-day plan" included: halting hostilities in Iran and Lebanon, unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, and lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports; in exchange, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear negotiations. Trump publicly rejected this proposal on September 26, but later stated that he expected negotiators to continue contact with Iran this week.

Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi expressed his bewilderment at the US rejection of the "7-day plan," stating that the US "seems not to have read the relevant documents" and demanding an explanation from the US. He also emphasized that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz depends on whether Iran's conditions are met, and indicated that Iran is prepared for a renewed conflict.

According to Bloomberg, sources familiar with the matter revealed that Iranian officials are privately pessimistic about reaching an agreement before the US midterm elections in November, believing that the possibility of an escalation of conflict after the elections on November 3 is high. Iran also believes that the talks held between the US and Iran last week during the UN General Assembly in New York made little progress.

Military risks have not subsided, and the multi-front strategy continues.

While diplomatic engagement is progressing, the risk of military confrontation between the US and Iran has not disappeared, which is an important reason why the risk premium in oil prices has not subsided quickly.

According to Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, a ship carrying US military personnel was attacked by Iranian missiles in the Strait of Hormuz on the 14th of this month. Eight Marines were injured, including seven soldiers and one officer. They suffered from smoke inhalation and experienced concussion-related symptoms such as headaches, and may have suffered traumatic brain injury.

Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written address on the 28th, emphasizing that Iran "has now become independent and strong," stating that "the past that the enemy longs to relive is gone forever," and indicating that enemy forces will be driven out of the Arabian Sea in the future.

On the legal front, Abuzal Hirudi, head of Iran's Civil Aviation Organization, said that Iran has filed a formal complaint with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) regarding the US flight restrictions imposed on Iran, and has also filed a lawsuit with the relevant authorities in The Hague regarding attacks on its airports, aircraft, and radar facilities.

Currently, the US-Iran relationship is characterized by multiple parallel lines of action, including military, diplomatic, and legal matters. The market is currently trading on expectations of diplomatic progress, rather than actual supply restoration. Significant differences remain between the two sides on core issues such as concessions on the Iranian nuclear issue, the scope of sanctions lifting, and the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the risk premium previously accumulated in crude oil prices can continue to subside depends on substantial verification of further diplomatic progress.

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