US stock market concentration intensifies! AI giants' IPO valuations reach $3.6 trillion, accounting for about 10% of the Nasdaq's market value.

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OpenAI has secretly submitted an IPO application, forming a lineup of AI listing candidates with SpaceX and Anthropic, whose combined valuation is approaching $3.6 trillion, amounting to about 10% of the total market capitalization of the Nasdaq Index. This puts further concentration pressure on an already highly concentrated tech index.

On Monday, OpenAI announced it had secretly submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Last week, Anthropic announced it had completed a secret IPO application and raised a new round of financing at a valuation of $965 billion, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. SpaceX is planning to go public this week at a valuation of about $1.8 trillion, which would instantly place it among the world’s highest-valued listed companies.

The combined valuation of the three companies is about $3.6 trillion, accounting for about 10% of the total Nasdaq market capitalization. Currently, the top ten constituents of the Nasdaq already account for more than 40% of its total market cap. If these AI giants all enter the market, it will further intensify the index’s concentration and amplify volatility risks in the tech sector. Meanwhile, the complex web of capital linkages between AI leaders is extending from the private market to the public market, raising concerns among some market participants as to whether the current valuations contain elements of a bubble.

This AI IPO boom will profoundly impact asset allocation in passive funds and reshape global investors’ risk exposure to the technology sector. Behind the massive influx of capital, the commercialization of AI technology is still in its early stages, and the long-term profitability and value creation paths of related companies remain highly uncertain.

Combined Valuation of the Three Major AI Giants Nears $3.6 Trillion

On Monday, OpenAI announced it had secretly submitted its IPO application, becoming the third major AI company, after SpaceX and Anthropic, to officially start preparations for a public listing. In terms of valuation: SpaceX is about $1.8 trillion, Anthropic about $965 billion, and OpenAI about $852 billion, totaling around $3.6 trillion. OpenAI’s valuation is based on financing completed in March this year, when the company raised $122 billion at a valuation of $852 billion—a single round of fundraising that surpassed SpaceX’s overall IPO valuation.

According to Bloomberg, OpenAI is working with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to prepare for its listing, with the earliest potential window being this fall. The company stated that the listing date has not been finalized: "It may still take some time, since some things are easier to advance as a private company. But this is a complex trade-off, and this move gives us the option to list faster at the optimal time." Reportedly, OpenAI also plans to launch an employee stock buyback offer within weeks before the official listing to provide liquidity, but the company spokesperson declined to comment.

Nasdaq Index Concentration Risk Intensifies, Market Warns of Recirculating Capital Structures

Songyee Yoon, founder and managing partner of Principal Venture Partners, said in a Bloomberg interview on the 10th that the $3.6 trillion AI IPO pipeline accounts for about 10% of the total Nasdaq market capitalization, while the top ten constituents of the Nasdaq already occupy more than 40% of its market cap. She noted that adding these AI companies will sharply increase the concentration of the Nasdaq, "further exposing it to cyclical risks and volatility in the tech market."

Yoon also pointed out that the scale of passive funds continues to expand, and these AI giants are deeply entwined in terms of capital linkages. The intricate computing dependencies and mutual investment arrangements among AI leaders are gradually extending from the private to the public market, forming a "recirculating transaction" pattern. "This is one of the reasons people believe there’s some element of a bubble in the current AI market."

This concern is not limited to the U.S. market. Yoon noted that the dominance of American tech giants over the global supply chain is driving capital enthusiasm in semiconductor and infrastructure companies worldwide, thereby supporting heightened valuations in other markets.

Yoon believes there are deep business logics behind this wave of intensive listings by AI giants: the capacity for large-scale fundraising has become a core part of their services and business models, creating structural barriers to entry for new competitors. "The capital moat built around these companies has become part of their business characteristics—it's one of the barriers against new entrants, and one of the reasons behind this IPO boom."

AI companies are currently racing to raise tens of billions of dollars to buy chips, build data centers, and develop more advanced AI systems. According to reports, OpenAI told investors in February that it plans to invest about $600 billion in AI infrastructure by 2030.

The Technology is Still in its Early Stage; Greater Investment Opportunity Lies in AI Applications

Yoon said that AI is a real technology and has already shown great potential in the "technology demonstration stage," but there is still a lot of work to be done before it becomes engineered, cost-optimized, and deployed at scale. "Whether from a technical perspective or in terms of infrastructure, it’s far from maturity, and there is plenty of room for improvement." She also noted that these improvements may come from existing AI giants or from emerging startups focused on solving specific problems.

Yoon used the aviation industry as an analogy to explain the logic of AI investment opportunities: very few companies can build engines, but the economic value is mainly created in aircraft manufacturing, airline operations, and supporting service industries derived from the aviation ecosystem. "We’ve found an amazing ‘engine technology’ that has the potential to spawn entirely new business models, but the vast range of businesses and applications built on top of it still need to be constructed. Where the ultimate value will be created, captured, and settled remains unknown."

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