Valuation exceeds $100 billion! JPMorgan covers Waymo for the first time: predicts order volume will surpass 277 million by 2030, with a CAGR as high as 79%.

Valuation exceeds $100 billion! JPMorgan covers Waymo for the first time: predicts order volume will surpass 277 million by 2030, with a CAGR as high as 79%.

JPMorgan Chase has released its first Waymo valuation model, forecasting explosive growth for the autonomous driving company under Alphabet over the next five years. The bank predicts Waymo’s annual order volume will soar from 15 million in 2025 to 277 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 79%. Total booking value is expected to approach $6 billion, capturing about 6% of the U.S. ride-hailing market.

The forecast comes as Waymo has just completed a $16 billion financing round, raising its valuation to $126 billion, only fifteen months after its previous $5.6 billion raise. In its announcement, Waymo said the new funding will allow the company to “advance at unprecedented speed.” During this period, Waymo’s weekly paid order volume has surged nearly threefold from 150,000 to over 400,000, and it aims to fulfill 15 million orders in 2025.

According to Trading Desk, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth wrote in a February 3 report that Waymo’s fleet is expected to expand from less than 3,000 vehicles at the end of 2025 to over 35,000 by the end of 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 67%. In 2026, Waymo’s fleet could double to around 5,725 vehicles, providing over 35 million orders and generating more than $800 million in total booking value.

The bank believes autonomous driving will expand the overall market size, with most of Waymo’s growth coming from new markets, but also taking some share from traditional ride-hailing platforms like Uber and Lyft. Currently, Waymo operates in six markets, including Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, and plans to add 10 new U.S. cities by 2026 as well as enter the London and Tokyo markets.

Aggressive Expansion Plans Underpin High Growth Expectations

JPMorgan’s valuation model is based on Waymo’s city expansion plan and fleet growth trajectory. The bank expects Waymo to enter 10 new U.S. cities in 2026, including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando, while also starting operations in London and possibly Tokyo, bringing the total number of operating and testing cities to over 20.

Specifically, for 2026, JPMorgan estimates Waymo’s Q4 order volume will reach around 11.6 million, equivalent to a weekly operation pace of about 900,000, closely matching Waymo’s own goal of 1 million weekly orders by the end of 2026.

In terms of market share, JPMorgan expects Waymo to account for about 1% of the U.S. ride-hailing market’s orders and total booking value in 2026, rising to around 6% by 2030. However, the bank emphasizes that autonomous driving technology acts as a market expander, and Waymo’s success will grow the overall market rather than just take share from incumbents.

$16 Billion Financing Accelerates Commercial Deployment

Waymo announced on February 2 that it had completed $16 billion in financing, with investors including major backer Alphabet, as well as Dragoneer, DST Global, Sequoia Capital, and others. This comes just fifteen months after raising $5.6 billion in October 2024, marking another large funding round.

During this time, Waymo’s operational data has climbed quickly. Weekly paid order volume grew from 150,000 to over 400,000, and the 15 million orders completed in 2025 is triple that of 2024. Reports say Waymo reached a weekly pace of 450,000 orders in December 2025, up 80% from April 2025’s 250,000.

Waymo says it will use the new capital to “expand globally at unprecedented speed,” aiming to reach a weekly order pace of over 1 million by the end of 2026—2.5 times the current 400,000. The company is building ride-hailing infrastructure in over 20 cities, including international markets like Tokyo and London.

JPMorgan points out that this latest large-scale fundraising will help Waymo rapidly ramp up fleet size in the short term, securing funding to reach 5,725 vehicles by end-2026 and 35,275 by 2030—the latter being about thirteen times the current fleet.

Airport and Highway Access as Key Breakthroughs

Waymo has recently made important progress in airport access. Last week, Waymo announced the launch of commercial service at San Francisco International Airport (SFO), initially available to select users and planning to open to all users in the coming months. The timing is strategic, coinciding with the Super Bowl on February 8 and preparation for the FIFA World Cup in June–July, with six matches to be held in Santa Clara.

Previously, Waymo began operations at San Jose Airport and received permits for testing at Newark Airport. It has started employee testing at Dallas Love Field Airport and San Antonio International Airport. The company disclosed in December 2025 that cumulative orders at Phoenix and San Jose airports had topped 500,000.

JPMorgan estimates airport orders account for around 15% of Uber’s total mobility booking value, with higher margins. Waymo’s wider access to airports and highways could affect Uber’s total mobility booking value and EBITDA in the medium term. However, the bank also notes that autonomous driving may expand the total addressable market overall.

In terms of operating data, according to the California Public Utilities Commission, Waymo’s order volume in California reached about 2.7 million in Q3 2025, up 20% quarter on quarter and tripling year on year. September’s single-month order volume broke 1 million for the first time, averaging about 237,000 per week and accounting for over 50% of Waymo’s worldwide weekly operations of 450,000.

User Data Shows Growth but Retention Needs Improvement

According to Sensor Tower data, Waymo One app’s monthly active users grew 63% year on year in January 2026, equal to about 6% of Lyft’s and 3.3% of Uber’s U.S. monthly active users. In downloads, Waymo One is about 25% of Lyft and 34% of Uber.

However, in terms of user stickiness, Waymo still lags behind traditional ride-hailing apps. The daily active/monthly active ratio (DAU/MAU) is 11% for Uber, 12% for Lyft, and only 8% for Waymo One. Retention rate data also show Waymo One’s retention is lower than Uber and Lyft at all time points, possibly indicating trial usage or one-off use for tourism.

Google search trends show that in five Waymo-operated markets, search interest for Waymo has surpassed Lyft in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Austin, but remains slightly below Lyft in Los Angeles and Atlanta. Notably, in Las Vegas, where Zoox began public operations in September, its search interest already exceeds Lyft’s, despite very limited service area.

According to Bloomberg Second Measure, Waymo’s Q4 2025 sales grew 134% year on year, higher than Q3’s 117%, but monthly growth slowed in Q4, with only 2% growth in December. This data does not include orders made via Uber’s app in Austin and Atlanta.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market involves risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it consider individual users’ specific investment objectives, financial status, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific situation. Investment decisions based on this are at your own risk.