Vance will go to Pakistan for a new round of U.S.-Iran talks.

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The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is about to expire, and whether negotiations can continue has become the focus of the market.

According to Xinhua News Agency, citing the U.S. Axios news website on the 20th, U.S. Vice President Vance is expected to depart for Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, on the morning of the 21st Eastern Time (evening of the 21st Beijing time) to conduct a new round of ceasefire negotiations with Iran. Three U.S. sources also said that Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and president's son-in-law Jared Kushner will also travel to Islamabad to participate in the negotiations.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei approved the dispatch of a negotiation delegation on the night of the 20th. Insiders said, "The White House spent all of the 20th waiting for signals from Tehran indicating it would send a negotiation team to Islamabad," and the three mediators—Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey—later urged Iran to participate in the negotiations.

"The Iranian negotiating team had been waiting for the Supreme Leader's approval, which was finally given on the evening of the 20th," said the source.

Vance's trip comes about a week after the breakdown of the first round of negotiations. According to media reports, Vance held a marathon 21-hour negotiation session in Pakistan last weekend, but failed to reach an agreement, and declared upon departure that the U.S. had offered its "final and best plan."

Ceasefire countdown: Trump threatens escalation

The window for these negotiations is extremely tight. According to reports, when Vance arrives in Pakistan, the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is nearing expiration.

On the 20th, Trump issued a strong warning via social media: "We have provided a very fair and reasonable agreement, I hope they accept it. Because if they don't accept, the U.S. will destroy every power plant and bridge in Iran. Don't expect me to be polite anymore!"

However, the report said that Trump has actually quietly extended the negotiations by one day—the ceasefire agreement was originally set to expire on Tuesday, but he said on Monday the deadline is Wednesday night. The report also pointed out, "Although it is very difficult to reach a comprehensive deal in such a tight timeframe, Trump may agree to extend the ceasefire period if there are signs of progress."

Core disagreement: nuclear enrichment and strait blockade

The core conflicts on the negotiating table have yet to be resolved. According to reports, regarding the nuclear enrichment issue, the U.S. is demanding Iran suspend enrichment activities for 20 years, while Iran is only willing to accept 5 years, a gap that is vast.

The issue of the Strait of Hormuz is equally thorny. About 20% of the world’s oil is transported through the strait. Iran has implemented a blockade of the route, and the U.S. has responded by blocking Iranian ports. Last Saturday, Iran attacked two Indian ships attempting passage, which Trump termed a "serious violation of the ceasefire agreement."

For Iran, the economic incentive to reach an agreement is also strong. Once a deal is achieved, billions of dollars in Iranian assets frozen by the U.S. may be unfrozen, or at least sanctions partially lifted.

Internal struggle in Iran: Revolutionary Guard pressure

Iran's hesitation is no accident. According to media citing sources, Iran's negotiating team delayed under evident pressure from the Revolutionary Guard, which insisted on a tough position: "No negotiations unless the U.S. blockade is lifted."

The negotiating team finally received the green light from the Supreme Leader and confirmed their attendance on the night of the 20th.

Meanwhile, Islamabad has entered a security lockdown. Currently, Pakistani authorities have declared a security lockdown in the capital and will deploy an additional 10,000 security personnel, indicating the negotiations are highly likely to be held as scheduled.

Vance's political gamble

For Vance personally, these negotiations are also a high-stakes gamble.

Both U.S. allies and adversaries believe that if he fails to achieve progress this time, it will be another major setback for this political figure, who is eyeing the succession to Trump, under the global spotlight.

Analysts point out that this war "is increasingly losing its appeal to U.S. voters and continues to drag down the global economy and highly complex energy supply chains."

Vance had previously told Trump privately that launching this war may be seen as a betrayal by loyal voters, but he has publicly defended it.

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