Vanke narrowly passed a hurdle.

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Author | Zhou Zhiyu

Editor | Zhang Xiaoling

On January 21, Vanke ushered in a milestone moment since the intensification of its liquidity struggle.

According to Wallstreetcn, the extension proposal for "21 Vanke 02" was approved with over 92% of the votes in favor. The property giant at the center of the storm has won a breathing window in its public debt contest, temporarily avoiding a substantial default. It also provides a reference sample for Vanke's negotiation of two subsequent medium-term notes.

In the past few days, Vanke’s stock and bond markets have experienced repeated shocks amid anxiety. With the finalization of the plan today, the stock price soared over 4.59%, and domestic bonds generally rose.

An analyst at a foreign investment bank believes that the reason "21 Vanke 02" received over 90% approval this time was because, after two months of contest, the plan was adjusted to address investors’ demands.

Looking back at the past two months, Vanke’s fight to extend its domestic debts was extremely grueling. Three previous extension proposals met with lukewarm response; even after multiple revisions, none crossed the 90% approval threshold. The success of "21 Vanke 02" lies in Vanke’s substantial demonstration of sincerity.

Previously, the main criticism from creditors was the lack of immediate cash repayment in the plan, even the intention of a "zero down payment" extension appeared. In the current plan, Vanke has clearly proposed to immediately repay 40% of the repurchase principal on January 30.

Vanke also set a key clause this time: for each securities account, a fixed payment of no more than 100,000 yuan will be implemented. Although voting rights are based on face value in bondholder meetings, the sentiment among small and medium investors often pushes the plan off track. This clause satisfies the needs of those large in quantity and most sensitive to risk.

Furthermore, for this extension, Vanke pledged accounts receivable from project companies such as Wuhan Wanyun Real Estate and Xixian New Area Kezhu Real Estate as credit enhancement measures.

This combination of "cash down payment + core asset collateral" marks the property companies’ contest with creditors entering a close-combat phase. Creditors no longer accept grand narratives; they only look at the certainty of the next 12 months. If there are no real asset pledges and cash upfront, extension proposals are hard to advance.

"21 Vanke 02" passed smoothly, but Vanke still faces a heavy "wall of debt" to overcome.

2026 is the peak year for Vanke’s domestic debt redemption, with principal amounts maturing or exercisable exceeding 12 billion yuan for the year. Additionally, in the coming week, two unagreed medium-term notes (totaling 5.7 billion yuan) still require investor approval to avoid short-term public debt default.

Unlike today’s approved corporate bond, holders of medium-term notes (MTN) are mostly banks and large institutions with extremely rigid risk controls. The logic of their decision-making is far more inflexible. Whether today’s 1.1 billion success can be replicated for the 5.7 billion in institutional negotiations will directly determine Vanke’s credit quality in the first quarter of 2026.

This 1.1 billion extension approval is just a signal. It tells the market that creditors are not willing to let Vanke collapse yet, and Vanke is also willing to stay at the table by delivering its most valuable chips. But in the time leading up to 2026, the discount rate of asset disposals, efficiency of cash recovery from sales, and unpublished non-public debts are the real keys to whether this giant can "survive."

At present, property companies must undergo a painful process of scraping toxins from the bone.

On one hand, there is extreme compression of organizational structure. To ensure decisions quickly reach the front line, property companies have to cut lengthy management layers; on the other hand, extreme activation of assets.

A calm but cruel fact is: passing an extension does not mean survival, it only means staying at the table.

At the policy level, although the "white list" mechanism allows project loans to be extended up to five years, a huge temperature gap still exists between the project-level safe house and the company-level public debt pressure.

Within this gap, property companies must learn to balance maintaining deliveries and preserving credit.

This industry is past the era when willpower and slogans could get you through. In the future, Vanke and its peers may have to accept shrinking to a third of their original scale, or even less, and turn to earning those tough, low-margin management fees.

Today’s extension approval brings a touch of warmth to this cold winter. What Vanke and the whole industry need is not just more time, but using that time to achieve a true transformation.

Risk Warning and DisclaimerThe market is risky, investments need caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it account for individual users’ particular investment goals, financial situation or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions herein fit their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk.

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