Vietnam sets an annual growth target of 10%, far higher than the previous unfinished target of 6.5%-7%.

Vietnam’s top leader To Lam set out an ambitious economic growth target at the party congress, aiming to counter headwinds in global trade through administrative reform and infrastructure investment.

According to Xinhua News Agency on January 20, the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam officially opened at the National Convention Center in Hanoi. Vietnam’s President To Lam gave the opening speech, and General Secretary To Lam presented the report submitted by the 13th Central Committee to the congress.

At the meeting, To Lam pledged that despite global turmoil, Vietnam will achieve average annual economic growth of over 10% before 2030. This target is significantly higher than the 6.5%-7.0% set for 2021-2025, which in reality was not achieved.

Meanwhile, according to Reuters, To Lam pointed out in his speech that Vietnam is facing "many overlapping difficulties and challenges," including natural disasters, supply chain disruptions, and intense strategic competition. As the core agenda of this congress, Vietnam will establish an economic development roadmap to 2030. A document submitted to the congress shows that the new growth target is set at not less than 10%.

Ambitious Growth Blueprint and Administrative Reform

The "average 10% annual growth" target proposed by To Lam is the core of Vietnam’s grand economic narrative. Wallstreetcn wrote that, according to Deutsche Bank chief economist Juliana Lee’s report, The Vietnamese government plans to join the ranks of "high-income countries" by 2045. To achieve this leap, To Lam called for strategic breakthroughs in institutions, infrastructure, and human resources—the three pillars.

To Lam specifically emphasized that institutions should become a competitive advantage. He promised to further reform public administration, streamline government agencies and administrative layers, and cut red tape to improve the business environment. Previously, in his brief term as General Secretary, he had already initiated the most significant reforms of the bureaucratic apparatus in decades.

In terms of infrastructure, Vietnam plans massive investments. To Lam stated that infrastructure development must adapt to climate change and ensure regional and global connectivity. Wallstreetcn wrote that Vietnam is preparing to finance growth by expanding its budget deficit (targeted at about 5% of GDP) and attracting foreign investment, aiming to draw $150–200 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) from 2026 to 2030.

Manufacturing Resilience and Tariff Pressures

Despite external pressures, recent economic data shows Vietnam’s continued resilience.

Vietnam’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that GDP grew by 8.46% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, far above economists’ estimates of 7.7%, marking the fastest quarterly growth since 2011. This growth was mainly driven by robust manufacturing and exports. Even after the Trump administration imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnam in August 2025, Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. have continued to grow.

In the fourth quarter last year, Vietnam’s manufacturing sector grew by more than 10%, becoming the main engine for economic growth; exports jumped nearly 24% year-on-year, and the trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record.

However, the lagging effects of the tariffs cannot be ignored. Reuters pointed out that the impact of U.S. tariffs may gradually emerge in the coming months. To counter this, Vietnam is seeking to strengthen trade relations with other partners, to diversify risk and safeguard national interests.

Credit Expansion Risks and Capital Market Upgrades

However, there are financial risks lurking behind these high growth targets.

As Vietnam pursues rapid growth, the fragility of its financial system is starting to show. According to Bloomberg, central bank data shows that credit grew by 17.9% last year, far outpacing the 14% growth in deposits. This imbalance has led to liquidity shortages in the banking sector.

Ratings agency Fitch has previously warned that lending in Vietnam's banking sector is growing faster than the overall economy, and that this credit-driven growth model is increasing financial risks. To ease the pressure, regulators have taken measures including dollar swap transactions to inject liquidity into the market.

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