Vultures smell blood? Star hedge fund manager Ackman revives his "doomsday strategy," repeating his contrarian bets from the pandemic.

Bill Ackman is planning a new big bet. The billionaire investor seeks to replicate the brilliance of his pandemic-era "doomsday trade" by setting up a new fund dedicated to wagering against market complacency, deploying a new asymmetric trading strategy amid heightened market turmoil. According to sources, Pershing Square, Ackman's firm, is in talks to establish a new fund that will use "asymmetric" trades to bet against mainstream market narratives. This strategy mirrors Ackman's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he spent $27 million on derivatives that appreciated sharply as corporate bonds were sold off, ultimately bringing Pershing Square a lucrative return of $2.6 billion. The launch of this new fund coincides with Pershing Square's flagship fund falling into a slump this year. According to regulatory filings, as of the end of March, the flagship fund had already accumulated losses exceeding 16% in 2024. At the same time, Ackman is actively advancing plans to list his hedge fund management company and urgently needs to show new growth paths to potential investors. Doomsday Strategy Returns Pershing Square's planned new fund will allocate most of its assets to short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, waiting for the right moment to deploy capital into large-scale credit and macro bets, adopting trading tactics in line with the main fund’s historical style. The heart of this strategy is using derivatives to construct highly-leveraged positions. In recent decades, Ackman, along with hedge fund managers like John Paulson and Michael Burry, have used tools such as credit default swaps to short corporate debt or mortgage bonds in a massive way. Derivatives can also be used to bet on extreme volatility in currencies, interest rates, and commodities. One of Ackman's most famous classic cases is his $60 million bet in 2009 during the financial crisis on bankrupt mall operator General Growth Properties, an investment that ultimately appreciated to around $3.6 billion. The revival of such strategies reflects Ackman's view that there are systemic mispricings in today's market. Growth Plans on the Eve of Listing The rollout of the new fund coincides closely with Ackman's preparations to list his hedge fund company. According to sources, in private communications with potential investors, Ackman has positioned this "asymmetric" fund as an important engine to boost management fee revenues. In a regulatory filing submitted last month, Pershing Square also explicitly stated that the company "may selectively launch new permanent capital funds and other instruments to supplement organic growth, in order to expand capital scale." Ackman currently plans to list Pershing Square Management Company together with a new closed-end fund called Pershing Square USA, targeting a fundraising scale between $5 billion and $10 billion. Ackman's flagship fund now holds around a dozen stocks, with long-term heavy positions in technology giants Uber, Google, Amazon, etc. The highly concentrated portfolio makes it highly sensitive to market volatility. The establishment of a new fund is, to some extent, a hedge and supplement to the limitations of existing strategies. A Larger Business Vision The new fund is only a part of Ackman's blueprint to build a larger business empire. He has established significant holdings in real estate developer Howard Hughes Holdings, using it as a vehicle to build a diversified corporate group, modeled after a modern version of "Berkshire Hathaway"—the company recently completed the acquisition of a property and casualty insurance company. Earlier this week, Ackman also proposed acquiring Universal Music Group with a payment mainly in shares, valuing the record company at about €55 billion, with plans to incorporate it into an Ackman-affiliated SPAC (blank-check company). Multiple fronts are advancing simultaneously, showing that Ackman is accelerating the transformation of Pershing Square from a single hedge fund to an integrated financial group amid market turbulence. For investors, whether this new doomsday-bet fund is a visionary contrarian move or a tactical shift under pressure from the flagship fund remains to be tested by the market. Risk warning and disclaimer The market contains risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the unique investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article fit their specific circumstances. Investing accordingly is at your own risk.